CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD)
NASDAQ: CRWD · Real-Time Price · USD
$528
+22.05 (+4.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CRWD rated Sell
Sell. The current valuation embeds an unattainable 42%+ 5-year revenue CAGR, ignoring structural SBC dilution and inevitable growth deceleration.
Fair value (mid)
$201 / share
$140 – $274
Upside to FV
-62.0%
from $528
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Further consolidation of the cybersecurity stack onto the Falcon platform drives durable 20%+ revenue growth. Operating leverage and tapering SBC issuance yields software-industry-leading free cash flow and eventually robust GAAP profitability.
Biggest risk
Microsoft Price War
Microsoft Price War: Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. The current price of $527.77 represents a ~59% premium to our intrinsic fair value midpoint of $200.71. The risk/reward is heavily skewed to the downside.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $134.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 4.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -162.5M | |
| EPS (ttm) | $-0.65 | |
| Shares out | 254.5M | |
| P/E (forward) | 85.6x | |
| Volume | 4,041,154 | |
| Beta | 1.06 | |
| Price target | $508 | -3.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 4.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- -162.5M
- EPS (ttm)
- $-0.65
- P/E (forward)
- 85.6x
- Market cap
- $134.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $1.45B | $2.24B | $3.06B | $3.95B | $4.81B | +34.9% |
| Gross profit | $1.07B | $1.64B | $2.30B | $2.96B | $3.59B | +35.4% |
| Operating income | $-142.5M | $-190.1M | $-19.1M | $-116.4M | $-293.3M | — |
| Net income | $-234.8M | $-183.2M | $72.2M | $-15.2M | $-162.5M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-1.03 | $-0.79 | $0.37 | $-0.08 | — | — |
| EBITDA | $-66.0M | $-40.8M | $276.7M | $298.8M | $182.5M | — |
| R&D | $371.3M | $608.4M | $780.3M | $1.08B | $1.38B | +39.0% |
| SG&A | $839.6M | $1.22B | $1.54B | $2.00B | $2.50B | +31.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $140
- Fair value (mid)
- $201
- Fair value (high)
- $274
- Current price
- $528
- Upside to mid
- -62.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | $217 | 85% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $109 | 15% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Forward earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$508
-3.8%
In the news
Latest news · CRWD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $134.3B
- P/E (forward)
- 85.6x
- P/S
- 27.9x
- P/B
- 30.2x
- PEG
- 4.88
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 74.8%
- Operating margin
- -5.2%
- ROE
- -4.1%
- ROA
- -1.6%
- ROIC
- -358.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Current ratio
- 1.77
- Quick ratio
- 1.59
Trading
- Beta
- 1.06
- Volume
- 4,041,154
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -62.0% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$273.98
-48.1% from spot
Further consolidation of the cybersecurity stack onto the Falcon platform drives durable 20%+ revenue growth. Operating leverage and tapering SBC issuance yields software-industry-leading free cash flow and eventually robust GAAP profitability.
- SBC normalizes rapidly
- Durable 20%+ CAGR maintained
Base45%
Price target
$200.71
-62.0% from spot
Growth naturally decelerates to ~12% in Year 5. A terminal EV/Rev multiple of 8x is applied as the company matures. SBC gradually moderates, but near-term multiple compression dominates the return profile.
- 22% decaying to 12% revenue growth
- 8x terminal EV/Rev multiple
Bear30%
Price target
$140.45
-73.4% from spot
Intensifying competition from Microsoft and Palo Alto Networks compresses growth rates earlier than anticipated. Stubbornly high structural SBC continues to dilute shareholders and suppress true economic returns, collapsing the premium multiple.
- Growth quickly drops <15%
- Terminal multiple compresses to 5x
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $201.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ev revenue | 85% | $217 | -58.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 15% | $109 | -79.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $201 | -62.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $246 | $263 | $283 | $307 | $335 |
| 10.5% | $217 | $230 | $246 | $263 | $283 |
| 11.5% | $194 | $205 | $217 | $230 | $246 |
| 12.5% | $176 | $184 | $194 | $205 | $217 |
| 13.5% | $160 | $168 | $176 | $184 | $194 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation1.5
Management6.3
Balance Sheet8.0
Profitability1.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment7.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality3.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
4.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 82/100
Target weight
Zero weight. Sell rating based on extreme valuation disconnect.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$528
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate current long exposures. The fundamental downside risk completely overwhelms any remaining momentum premium.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E85.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-4.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-358.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All CRWD indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
237
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 237 of 237 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CRWD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CRWD report
What is the current CRWD stock rating?
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CRWD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CRWD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CRWD?
The latest report frames CRWD around $140 to $274. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CRWD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellCRWD · Fair value $201-62.0% · Confidence 82/100