EMR trades against a final fair-value range of $88.69-$155.92, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $88.7, high $156, with mid-point at $122.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$122
Margin of safety
-12.3%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$137.28Price
Low $88.69
Mid $122.21
High $155.92
EMR trades against a final fair-value range of $88.69-$155.92, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs associated with
High switching costs associated with mission-critical process automation platforms like DeltaV.
Sticky, high-margin software and service
Sticky, high-margin software and service recurring revenue base.
Bull thesis
Reduce-side internal valuation cross-checks ($164.87) aggressively prices in perfect execution of the M&A synergy playbook and permanent retention of 24.2% outlier margins.
Each scenario for EMR (EMR) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.
Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.
Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.
When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.
FAQ
EMR — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, EMR screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $137 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $122 (range $88.7–$156), which implies roughly 11.0% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for EMR is $88.7–$156, with a midpoint of $122. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for EMR's archetype.
Our current rating for EMR is Reduce with a confidence score of 87/100. EMR is rated Reduce at $137.28 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $122.21, implying -10.98% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for EMR are: M&A Value Destruction; Automation CAPEX Freeze; Margin Reversion. The single biggest risk is M&A Value Destruction: Failure to extract synergies from recent software acquisitions causes ROIC to stagnate below WACC, driven by the $18B goodwill burden.
Our current rating for EMR is Reduce, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($88.7–$156) versus the current price of $137.
EMR is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for EMR.
