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KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $736, high $1244, with mid-point at $984.
Stock analysis

KLAC fair value $736–$1,244

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تحلیل شد: 2026-05-08به‌روزرسانی بعدی: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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قیمت
$1869.19
▼ -884.78 (-47.33%)
ارزش منصفانه
$984
$736–$1244
رتبه‌بندی
فروش
confidence 84/100
پتانسیل رشد
-47.3%
upside to fair value
حاشیه ایمنی
$836.75
MoS level · 15%
ارزش بازار
$244.2B
P/E fwd 37.7
منبع انگلیسیFA
منبع انگلیسی تا زمان ترجمه نمایش داده می‌شود
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.

§1 خلاصه اجرایی

  • Composite fair value $984 with high case $1,244.
  • Implied downside of 47.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$984
Margin of safety
-89.9%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,869.19Price
Low $735.74
Mid $984.41
High $1,243.87

KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Dominant market share in advanced
    Dominant market share in advanced metrology and inspection.
  • High capital intensity of advanced
    High capital intensity of advanced node defect detection.
  • Bull thesis
    Value: Extreme overvaluation relative to normalized cash flows.

§2 سناریوی نزولی

A synchronized downturn in global WFE spending combined with strict export bans on advanced metrology tools to China severely contracts near-term revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.. Elevated R&D requirements for 2nm transitions crush operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., forcing margins well below mid-cycle averages.

چگونگی شکست این تز

China Export Ban Expansion

· Medium

Complete restriction on all tier-1 process control equipment sales to Chinese foundries, eliminating a high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 months

WFE Cyclical Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged memory and foundry capex freeze delays 2nm and advanced packaging ramps, stalling KLA's growth trajectory.

FV impact
High
Trigger
6-18 months

Margin Compression via R&D

· Low

Defect detection at angstrom levels demands exponentially higher R&D, structurally degrading peak operating margins below 35%.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
معیارفعلیآستانه فعال‌سازی
Consecutive quarters of declining WFE capex forecasts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased stringency in US Department of Commerce export controls.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential operating margin degradation below 38%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay in major foundry 2nm production schedules.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 تاریخچه مالی

صورت سود و زیان — شش دوره اخیر
ردیفT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4نرخ رشد سالانه مرکب
دوره2021-06-302022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
درآمد—$9.21B$10.50B$9.81B$12.16B+7.2%
سود ناخالص—$5.62B$6.28B$5.88B$7.40B+7.1%
سود عملیاتی—$3.65B$3.99B$3.64B$5.01B+8.2%
سود خالص—$3.32B$3.39B$2.76B$4.06B+5.2%
EPS (رقیق‌شده)$13.37$21.92$24.15$20.28—+11.0%
EBITDA—$4.01B$4.50B$3.90B$5.34B+7.4%
تحقیق و توسعه—$1.11B$1.30B$1.28B$1.36B+5.3%
هزینه‌های عمومی و فروش—$860.0M$986.3M$969.5M$1.03B+4.6%

امتیازات کیفیت

امتیاز Piotroski F
9 / 9
ترکیب کیفیت ۰–۹
امتیاز Altman Z
14.61
ریسک ورشکستگی (>۳ ایمن)
امتیاز Beneish M
-2.25
ریسک دستکاری سود
OCF / سود خالص
1.01×
>۱ نشان‌دهنده کیفیت بالای سود
دروازه کیفیت حسابداری
Pass
دروازه تعدیل‌شده بخشی
ROIC
36.2%
بازده سرمایه‌گذاری‌شده
بخش ۳

Numbers analysis

جریان نقدی

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصیص سرمایه

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

مشترکان فردی — از §۴ به بعد11 بخش بیشتر

تحلیل کامل را بخوانید — 11 بخش بیشتر.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

گزارش کامل برای هر نماد تحت پوشش
بایگانی ۲۴ ماه رتبه‌بندی
بریفینگ‌های فهرست مشاهده + هشدارهای تغییر رتبه
خروجی PDF + DOCX به هر زبان
شروع آزمایش رایگان
قابل لغو در هر زمان.
CASH FLOW FAQ

KLAC cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for KLAC (KLAC) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

KLAC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KLAC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1869 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $984 (range $736–$1244), which implies roughly 47.3% downside to the midpoint.

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