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Direct answer
The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows. Fair value range: low $77.2, high $122, with mid-point at $99.5.
Stock analysis

KO The Coca-Cola Company fair value $99–$122

KO
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تحلیل شد: 2026-05-08به‌روزرسانی بعدی: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Consumer Staples
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قیمت
$78.33
▲ +21.13 (+26.98%)
ارزش منصفانه
$99
$99–$122
رتبه‌بندی
خرید قوی
confidence 88/100
پتانسیل رشد
+27.0%
upside to fair value
حاشیه ایمنی
$84.54
buy below · 15%
ارزش بازار
$337.0B
P/E fwd 22.5
منبع انگلیسیFA
منبع انگلیسی تا زمان ترجمه نمایش داده می‌شود
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.

§1 خلاصه اجرایی

  • Unparalleled wide moat supporting consistent ROIC (~18%).
  • Fair value midpoint of $99.46 implies nearly 27% upside.
  • Pricing power neutralizes near-term CSD volume sluggishness.
  • Weak OCF/NI conversion warrants monitoring but terminal stability is intact.
Fair value
$99
Margin of safety
+21.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$78.33Price
FV $99.46
High $121.75

The Coca-Cola Company is a quintessential mature compounder with unparalleled brand equity, a globally diversified distribution network, and immense pricing power. While secular unit volume growth for carbonated soft drinks is sluggish, consistent pricing execution and strategic portfolio expansion into non-carbonated beverages drive steady, high-margin cash flows.

  • Cycle upside
    Late-cycle pricing capture masks volume softness.

§2 سناریوی نزولی

Secular volume declines accelerate beyond pricing power elasticity, combined with persistent FX headwinds that permanently compress international returns and the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate..

چگونگی شکست این تز

Health Trend Acceleration

20%· Medium

Accelerated secular shifts away from carbonated soft drinks permanently compress volume growth.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
3-5 years

Persistent FX Headwinds

30%· Medium

Strong USD and emerging market volatility structurally erode translated earnings and returns.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 years

Input Cost Margin Squeeze

15%· Low

Unhedged agricultural and packaging inflation outpaces pricing elasticity, crushing gross margins.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 years
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
معیارفعلیآستانه فعال‌سازی
Consecutive quarters of declining organic volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 58%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin slipping below 30%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to scale Costa Coffee and RTD alcohol.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Persistent deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 تاریخچه مالی

صورت سود و زیان — شش دوره اخیر
ردیفT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4نرخ رشد سالانه مرکب
دوره2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
درآمد$38.66B$43.00B$45.75B$47.06B$47.94B+5.5%
سود ناخالص$23.30B$25.00B$27.23B$28.74B$29.54B+6.1%
سود عملیاتی$11.04B$12.04B$13.10B$14.02B$14.91B+7.8%
سود خالص$9.77B$9.54B$10.71B$10.63B$13.11B+7.6%
EPS (رقیق‌شده)$2.19$2.47$2.46$3.04+8.5%
EBITDA$15.47B$13.83B$15.61B$15.82B$18.70B+4.9%
تحقیق و توسعه
هزینه‌های عمومی و فروش$12.14B$12.88B$13.97B$14.58B$14.52B+4.6%

امتیازات کیفیت

امتیاز Piotroski F
7 / 9
ترکیب کیفیت ۰–۹
امتیاز Altman Z
5.07
ریسک ورشکستگی (>۳ ایمن)
امتیاز Beneish M
-2.35
ریسک دستکاری سود
OCF / سود خالص
0.57×
>۱ نشان‌دهنده کیفیت بالای سود
دروازه کیفیت حسابداری
Fail
دروازه تعدیل‌شده بخشی
ROIC
18.0%
بازده سرمایه‌گذاری‌شده
بخش ۳

Numbers analysis

تخصیص سرمایه

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

مشترکان فردی — از §۴ به بعد11 بخش بیشتر

تحلیل کامل را بخوانید — 11 بخش بیشتر.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

گزارش کامل برای هر نماد تحت پوشش
بایگانی ۲۴ ماه رتبه‌بندی
بریفینگ‌های فهرست مشاهده + هشدارهای تغییر رتبه
خروجی PDF + DOCX به هر زبان
شروع آزمایش رایگان
قابل لغو در هر زمان.
FAQ

KO — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KO looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $78.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $99.5 (range $77.2–$122), which implies roughly 27.0% upside to the midpoint.
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Same sector: Consumer Staples