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Direct answer
MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $193, high $377, with mid-point at $275.
Stock analysis

MDB fair value $193–$377

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تحلیل شد: 2026-05-10به‌روزرسانی بعدی: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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قیمت
$299.47
▼ -24.03 (-8.02%)
ارزش منصفانه
$275
$193–$377
رتبه‌بندی
نگه‌داری
confidence 77/100
پتانسیل رشد
-8.0%
upside to fair value
حاشیه ایمنی
$234.12
MoS level · 15%
ارزش بازار
$24.1B
P/E fwd 42.5
منبع انگلیسیFA
منبع انگلیسی تا زمان ترجمه نمایش داده می‌شود
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.

§1 خلاصه اجرایی

  • Composite fair value $275 with high case $377.
  • Implied downside of 8.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 77/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$275
Margin of safety
-8.7%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$299.47Price
Low $192.74
Mid $275.44
High $376.5

MDB trades against a final fair-value range of $192.74-$376.50, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for embedded
    High switching costs for embedded core databases
  • Network effects within developer ecosystems
    Network effects within developer ecosystems
  • Cycle upside
    Cloud migration and AI-driven unstructured data generation accelerate NoSQL adoption.

§2 سناریوی نزولی

A contraction in IT budgets combined with hyperscalers bundling competing NoSQL products at steep discounts forces MDB to sacrifice margins. Compounded by massive stock-based compensationStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash., GAAP profitability remains elusive and terminal EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiples compress heavily.

چگونگی شکست این تز

Hyperscaler Commoditization

· Medium

AWS and Azure successfully migrate new workloads to native document databases, stalling Atlas growth.

FV impact
-30% to base
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Stagnation

· High

SBC and R&D requirements remain structurally elevated, preventing the modeled 25% long-term operating margin.

FV impact
-25% to base
Trigger
24-36 months

Multiple Compression

· Medium

Market abandons EV/Revenue anchoring for pre-profit software, applying mature PEG multiples.

FV impact
-60% to base
Trigger
6-12 months
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
معیارفعلیآستانه فعال‌سازی
Atlas revenue growth decelerating below 15%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC exceeding 25% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
OCF-to-Net-Income divergence widening past -8xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 70%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share to AWS DocumentDBMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 تاریخچه مالی

صورت سود و زیان — شش دوره اخیر
ردیفT−0T−1T−2T−3نرخ رشد سالانه مرکب
دوره2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
درآمد$1.28B$1.68B$2.01B$2.46B+24.3%
سود ناخالص$934.7M$1.26B$1.47B$1.77B+23.7%
سود عملیاتی$-346.7M$-233.7M$-216.1M$-137.0M—
سود خالص$-345.4M$-176.6M$-129.1M$-71.2M—
EPS (رقیق‌شده)$-5.03$-2.48$-1.73$-0.88—
EBITDA$-294.3M$-122.0M$-96.5M$-15.2M—
تحقیق و توسعه$421.7M$515.9M$596.8M$716.3M+19.3%
هزینه‌های عمومی و فروش$859.7M$976.3M$1.09B$1.19B+11.4%

امتیازات کیفیت

امتیاز Piotroski F
5 / 9
ترکیب کیفیت ۰–۹
امتیاز Altman Z
18.58
ریسک ورشکستگی (>۳ ایمن)
امتیاز Beneish M
-2.86
ریسک دستکاری سود
OCF / سود خالص
-7.1
>۱ نشان‌دهنده کیفیت بالای سود
دروازه کیفیت حسابداری
Fail
دروازه تعدیل‌شده بخشی
ROIC
-0.0%
بازده سرمایه‌گذاری‌شده
بخش ۳

Numbers analysis

جریان نقدی

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصیص سرمایه

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

مشترکان فردی — از §۴ به بعد11 بخش بیشتر

تحلیل کامل را بخوانید — 11 بخش بیشتر.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

گزارش کامل برای هر نماد تحت پوشش
بایگانی ۲۴ ماه رتبه‌بندی
بریفینگ‌های فهرست مشاهده + هشدارهای تغییر رتبه
خروجی PDF + DOCX به هر زبان
شروع آزمایش رایگان
قابل لغو در هر زمان.
CASH FLOW FAQ

MDB cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for MDB (MDB) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

MDB — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDB screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $299 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $275 (range $193–$377), which implies roughly 8.0% downside to the midpoint.

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