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Direct answer
NOC trades against a final fair-value range of $486.28-$966.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $486, high $966, with mid-point at $726.
Stock analysis

NOC fair value $486–$966

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
تحلیل شد: 2026-05-13به‌روزرسانی بعدی: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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قیمت
$558.30
▲ +167.35 (+29.97%)
ارزش منصفانه
$726
$486–$966
رتبه‌بندی
خرید قوی
confidence 88/100
پتانسیل رشد
+30.0%
upside to fair value
حاشیه ایمنی
$616.80
MoS level · 15%
ارزش بازار
$79.3B
P/E fwd 18.5
منبع انگلیسیFA
منبع انگلیسی تا زمان ترجمه نمایش داده می‌شود
این گزارش هنوز ترجمه نشده است. پس از چند دقیقه، زمانی که صف ترجمه به‌روز شد، صفحه را تازه کنید.

§1 خلاصه اجرایی

  • Composite fair value $726 with high case $966.
  • Implied upside of 30.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$726
Margin of safety
+23.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$558.30Price
Low $486.28
Mid $725.65
High $966.07

NOC trades against a final fair-value range of $486.28-$966.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets (Patents, clearances, proprietary
    Intangible Assets (Patents, clearances, proprietary tech)
  • Switching Costs (Long product life
    Switching Costs (Long product life cycles, high integration)
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating global defense spending and space commercialization.

§2 سناریوی نزولی

A prolonged U.S. government continuing resolution combined with unexpected inflation in fixed-price development contracts.

چگونگی شکست این تز

Severe Budget Sequestration

· Low

A deeply divided Congress enforces strict defense budget caps, halting modernization of the nuclear triad and capping space spending.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
1-3 Years

B-21 Cost Overruns

· Medium

The B-21 Raider program encounters severe technical hurdles leading to massive cost overruns on fixed-price lots.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-4 Years

Commercial Space Disruption

· Medium

Rapid advancements by commercial space entities fully disrupt Northrop's military space and satellite businesses.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
3-5 Years
سیگنال‌های هشدار اولیه برای پایش
معیارفعلیآستانه فعال‌سازی
Operating margins compress below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
B-21 Raider delivery schedule slips significantlyMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sentinel ICBM program faces funding cutsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion drops below 1.0xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Book-to-bill ratio falls below 1.0 for multiple quartersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 تاریخچه مالی

صورت سود و زیان — شش دوره اخیر
ردیفT−0T−1T−2T−3نرخ رشد سالانه مرکب
دوره2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
درآمد$36.60B$39.29B$41.03B$41.95B+4.7%
سود ناخالص$7.47B$6.55B$8.36B$8.31B+3.6%
سود عملیاتی$3.60B$2.54B$4.37B$4.28B+5.9%
سود خالص$4.90B$2.06B$4.17B$4.18B-5.1%
EPS (رقیق‌شده)$31.47$13.53$28.34$29.08-2.6%
EBITDA$7.68B$4.23B$7.01B$7.21B-2.1%
تحقیق و توسعه—————
هزینه‌های عمومی و فروش$3.87B$4.01B$3.99B$4.03B+1.4%

امتیازات کیفیت

امتیاز Piotroski F
6 / 9
ترکیب کیفیت ۰–۹
امتیاز Altman Z
3.41
ریسک ورشکستگی (>۳ ایمن)
امتیاز Beneish M
-2.44
ریسک دستکاری سود
OCF / سود خالص
1.14×
>۱ نشان‌دهنده کیفیت بالای سود
دروازه کیفیت حسابداری
Pass
دروازه تعدیل‌شده بخشی
ROIC
13.4%
بازده سرمایه‌گذاری‌شده
بخش ۳

Numbers analysis

جریان نقدی

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

تخصیص سرمایه

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

مشترکان فردی — از §۴ به بعد11 بخش بیشتر

تحلیل کامل را بخوانید — 11 بخش بیشتر.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

گزارش کامل برای هر نماد تحت پوشش
بایگانی ۲۴ ماه رتبه‌بندی
بریفینگ‌های فهرست مشاهده + هشدارهای تغییر رتبه
خروجی PDF + DOCX به هر زبان
شروع آزمایش رایگان
قابل لغو در هر زمان.
FAQ

NOC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NOC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $558 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $726 (range $486–$966), which implies roughly 30.0% upside to the midpoint.

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