تحلیل اختیاری محصول
با اجازه شما، از تحلیلهای محدود و حریمخصوصیمحور استفاده میکنیم تا مسیرهای پژوهشی مؤثر را بشناسیم. از ردیاب تبلیغاتی یا بازپخش نشست استفاده نمیکنیم. این انتخاب را میتوانید در تنظیمات تغییر دهید. بخوانید سیاست حفظ حریم خصوصی.
Natera, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $59.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 2.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -192.3M | |
| EPS (ttm) | -$1.37 | |
| Shares out | 144.1M | |
| P/E (forward) | 5000.0x | |
| Volume | 1,258,999 | |
| Beta | 1.50 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $625.5M | $820.2M | $1.08B | $1.70B | $2.31B | +38.6% |
| Gross profit | $307.1M | $364.0M | $492.7M | $1.02B | $1.50B | +48.6% |
| Operating income | $-468.2M | $-541.0M | $-446.2M | $-222.3M | $-309.9M | — |
| Net income | $-471.7M | $-547.8M | $-434.8M | $-190.4M | $-208.2M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-5.21 | $-5.57 | $-3.78 | $-1.53 | $-1.52 | — |
| EBITDA | $-451.5M | $-507.0M | $-383.3M | $-148.1M | $-220.5M | — |
| R&D | $264.2M | $316.4M | $320.7M | $404.1M | $624.1M | +24.0% |
| SG&A | $511.0M | $588.6M | $618.3M | $841.3M | $1.18B | +23.2% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the base case, revenue expands in line with consensus projections at 26.15% in FY2026 and 19.97% in FY2027, before decelerating toward 11.0% by FY2030 as domestic clinical adoption matures. Operating margins transition from -5.5% in FY2026 to positive 2.0% in FY2027 and normalize toward 16.0% by FY2030 as fixed laboratory overhead levers down. Capex scales down from FY2025 peak levels of $106.19M (3.2x D&A) toward maintenance intensity of 9.38% reinvestment rate in FY2030. Medicare reimbursement remains stable at ~13.6% of revenue. Under an equal-weighted synthesis of EV/revenue ($114.97) and FCFF DCF ($36.90) at a 10.40% WACC, Fair value is established at $75.94.
In the bull case, oncology test penetration and women's health volume accelerate beyond consensus expectations, sustaining strong double-digit annual revenue growth through FY2028. Fixed-cost absorption across high-throughput laboratory facilities drives gross margin expansion toward 70% and enables GAAP operating profitability ahead of expectations by FY2027. Rolling MolDX coverage decisions for pending submissions deliver an estimated $150 to $200 ASP expansion, while international launch in Japan broadens geographic diversification. Capex normalizes rapidly toward maintenance levels, generating substantial positive FCFF.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | $89.6 | $90.4 | $91.2 | $92.1 | $93.1 |
| 9.9% | $86.4 | $87.1 | $87.8 | $88.5 | $89.4 |
| 10.4% | $78.4 | $79.0 | $75.9 | $80.2 | $80.9 |
| 10.9% | $80.8 | $81.3 | $81.9 | $82.4 | $83.0 |
| 11.4% | $78.4 | $78.8 | $79.2 | $79.7 | $80.2 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
رتبهای که نسخهٔ پژوهشی منتشرشدهٔ هر ماه داشت. رتبه قیمت در تاریخ تحلیل را با ارزش منصفانه مقایسه میکند و سابقهای از درستی یا نادرستی ارزیابی نیست.
| سال | دی | بهمن | اسفند | فروردین | اردیبهشت | خرداد | تیر | مرداد | شهریور | مهر | آبان | آذر |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
