Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

The modal base scenario incorporates solid near-term volume recovery through FY2027 and FY2028 before revenue growth and operating margins normalize toward historical averages. This path produces a target of $273.49 with an assigned probability of 50.0%, implying a return of -68.8% relative to $877.33. The scenario would be disconfirmed if nearline revenue growth decelerates sharply or capital spending breaches targeted ranges over the next twelve months.

• Revenue expands sharply through FY2027 and FY2028 before stabilizing
• Operating margins peak near current levels then fade toward normalized baseline
• Tooling capital spending stays within four to six percent of revenue
• Terminal growth rate of two percent