VZ trades against a final fair-value range of $44.81-$87.77, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $44.8, high $87.8, with mid-point at $65.6.
Stock analysis
Verizon Communications Inc.VZ Verizon Communications Inc. fair value $66–$88
Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$66
Margin of safety
+28.1%
Confidence
72/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$47.22Price
FV $65.64
High $87.77
VZ trades against a final fair-value range of $44.81-$87.77, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Massive scale in US wireless
Massive scale in US wireless market
High barriers to entry for
High barriers to entry for network infrastructure
Cycle upside
Peak 5G capex is behind us, entering a harvesting phase with expanding free cash flow.
§2 سناریوی نزولی
Prolonged high interest rates paired with aggressive price wars from competitors compress margins, forcing Verizon to choose between maintaining its high dividend yield and adequately investing in its network infrastructure.
چگونگی شکست این تز
Dividend Cut
· Low
Free cash flow fails to cover dividend obligations due to severe ARPU contraction or unexpected capex requirements, triggering massive yield-focused retail selling.
FV impact
Catastrophic
T-Mobile Dominance
· Medium
T-Mobile captures the vast majority of postpaid phone net additions over the next 3 years, structurally eroding Verizon's premium brand positioning and pricing power.
FV impact
High
Debt Refinancing Crisis
· Low
A structurally higher interest rate environment severely increases interest expenses as Verizon's massive debt load rolls over, eating into equity returns.
FV impact
Moderate
سیگنالهای هشدار اولیه برای پایش
معیار
فعلی
آستانه فعالسازی
Postpaid phone net subscriber losses
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Rising churn rates in consumer segment
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
ARPU growth deceleration
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow falling below $15B
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Debt/EBITDA ratio expanding beyond 3.5x
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 تاریخچه مالی
صورت سود و زیان — شش دوره اخیر
ردیف
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
T−4
نرخ رشد سالانه مرکب
دوره
2021-12-31
2022-12-31
2023-12-31
2024-12-31
2025-12-31
Trend
درآمد
$133.61B
$136.84B
$133.97B
$134.79B
$138.19B
+0.8%
سود ناخالص
$77.31B
$77.70B
$79.09B
$80.69B
$81.43B
+1.3%
سود عملیاتی
$32.45B
$30.47B
$28.72B
$28.69B
$29.26B
-2.6%
سود خالص
$22.07B
$21.26B
$11.61B
$17.51B
$17.17B
-6.1%
EPS (رقیقشده)
$5.32
$5.06
$2.75
$4.14
$4.06
-6.5%
EBITDA
$49.11B
$48.98B
$40.14B
$47.52B
$47.72B
-0.7%
تحقیق و توسعه
—
—
—
—
—
—
هزینههای عمومی و فروش
$28.66B
$30.14B
$32.75B
$34.11B
$33.82B
+4.2%
امتیازات کیفیت
امتیاز Piotroski F
6 / 9
ترکیب کیفیت ۰–۹
امتیاز Altman Z
1.27
ریسک ورشکستگی (>۳ ایمن)
امتیاز Beneish M
-2.69
ریسک دستکاری سود
OCF / سود خالص
2.16×
>۱ نشاندهنده کیفیت بالای سود
دروازه کیفیت حسابداری
Pass
دروازه تعدیلشده بخشی
ROIC
8.8%
بازده سرمایهگذاریشده
بخش ۳
Numbers analysis
جریان نقدی
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
تخصیص سرمایه
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
مشترکان فردی — از §۴ به بعد11 بخش بیشتر
تحلیل کامل را بخوانید — 11 بخش بیشتر.
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, VZ looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $47.2 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $65.6 (range $44.8–$87.8), which implies roughly 39.0% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for VZ is $44.8–$87.8, with a midpoint of $65.6. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Verizon Communications Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for VZ is Strong Buy with a confidence score of 72/100. VZ is rated Strong Buy at $47.22 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $65.64, implying +39.01% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 72/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Verizon Communications Inc. are: Dividend Cut; T-Mobile Dominance; Debt Refinancing Crisis. The single biggest risk is Dividend Cut: Free cash flow fails to cover dividend obligations due to severe ARPU contraction or unexpected capex requirements, triggering massive yield-focused retail selling.
Our current rating for VZ is Strong Buy, issued with a confidence score of 72/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($44.8–$87.8) versus the current price of $47.2.
Verizon Communications Inc. is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for VZ.
