Market regime model
Glossary version 2026-07-12.v1 · reviewed July 12, 2026
A composite scorecard that classifies the equity market into a regime band by rolling up the yield curve, revisions, credit spreads, breadth, sentiment, valuation, and macro surprise into a 0-100 score with an uncertainty-aware range.
Composite score = mean(sub-component scores), each normalized to 0-100The market regime model asks whether the broad equity market is operating in an environment that historically rewarded or punished risk-taking. Seven sub-components are normalized to a common 0-100 scale and equal-weighted into a composite. Equal weights avoid back-fitting to the most recent regime. The public output is a regime band, the seven component scores with deltas, and a composite low/mid/high range for the index; greater component disagreement widens that range. It does not predict next-month returns and should not be used as a market-timing signal.