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BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $69.6, high $123, with mid-point at $98.4.
Stock analysis

BK fair value $70–$123

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-08Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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Cours
$130.85
▼ -32.46 (-24.81%)
Juste valeur
$98
$70–$123
Notation
Réduire
confidence 88/100
Potentiel de hausse
-24.8%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$83.63
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$89.8B
P/E fwd 13.6
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $98 with high case $123.
  • Implied downside of 24.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$98
Margin of safety
-33.0%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$130.85Price
Low $69.61
Mid $98.39
High $123.17

BK trades against a final fair-value range of $69.61-$123.17, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for institutional
    High switching costs for institutional clients
  • Massive scale in custody and
    Massive scale in custody and administration
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks relies on inappropriate industrial-style DCF models.

§2 Cas baissier

A stress environment combining a 20% equity market drawdown and 200 bps of rate cuts would simultaneously hit fee revenues and net interest incomeNet Interest IncomeNet Interest Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., severely testing fixed-cost leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA..

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Severe Market Correction

· Medium

A prolonged global market downturn drastically reduces Assets Under Custody/Administration (AUC/A), directly compressing fee-based revenue streams below fixed operating costs.

FV impact
-15% to -20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Accelerated Rate Cuts

· High

Central banks aggressively cut interest rates faster than expected, severely compressing net interest margins on uninvested cash balances.

FV impact
-10% to -15%
Trigger
6-12 months

Regulatory Capital Hike

· Medium

G-SIB regulatory framework adjustments force significant increases in required equity capital, depressing ROE and residual income valuations.

FV impact
-20% to -25%
Trigger
18-36 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Consecutive quarters of declining AUC/A balancesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Compression of net interest margin below historical averagesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Elevated technology and compliance spend exceeding revenue growthMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major institutional custody mandates to competitorsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions indicating impending capital surcharge increasesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4TCAC
Période2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$15.63B$16.19B$17.34B$18.26B$19.76B+6.0%
Marge brute——————
Résultat d'exploitation——————
Résultat net$3.76B$2.56B$3.30B$4.53B$5.55B+10.2%
BPA (dilué)—$2.90$4.00$5.80$7.40+26.4%
EBITDA——————
R&D——————
SG&A$6.34B$6.80B$7.10B$6.89B$6.95B+2.3%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
1.21×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Pass
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
—
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

BK income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of BK (BK) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

BK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $131 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $98.4 (range $69.6–$123), which implies roughly 24.8% downside to the midpoint.

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