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BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $459, high $889, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis

BLK fair value $459–$889

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-09Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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Cours
$1084.83
▼ -414.40 (-38.20%)
Juste valeur
$670
$459–$889
Notation
Vendre
confidence 77/100
Potentiel de hausse
-38.2%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$569.87
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$168.4B
P/E fwd 17.9
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $670 with high case $889.
  • Implied downside of 38.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 77/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-61.8%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,084.83Price
Low $458.59
Mid $670.43
High $888.83

BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
    Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
  • High switching costs via Aladdin
    High switching costs via Aladdin enterprise platform
  • Cycle upside
    Structural shift toward passive ETFs and scaling of private market alternatives.

§2 Cas baissier

A protracted global equity bear market reduces AUM-based fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., colliding with accelerated zero-fee competitor product launches and stalling Aladdin's annual recurring revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible..

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Sustained Market Stagnation

· Medium

Extended equity and fixed-income market drawdowns mechanically shrink AUM, severely degrading base management fees and operating leverage.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $458.59 low-end floor.
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Fee War Acceleration

· Low

Competitors slash expense ratios to zero across core index products, forcing BlackRock to cut fees to defend market share.

FV impact
Compresses margins, impairing EPS growth and forward multiple.
Trigger
24-36 months

Political Divestment Mandates

· Low

Legislative backlash forces major state pension funds and institutional clients to withdraw capital over ESG or proxy voting policies.

FV impact
Reduces terminal growth rate and terminal PE multiple.
Trigger
12-18 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Consecutive quarters of net outflows in core iSharesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Aladdin revenue growth decelerating below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin compressing below 30%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant institutional mandate lossesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising base fee realization rate discountsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4TCAC
Période2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$19.37B$17.87B$17.86B$20.41B$24.22B+5.7%
Marge brute$9.82B$8.68B$8.58B$10.09B$11.31B+3.6%
Résultat d'exploitation$7.45B$6.48B$6.34B$7.54B$7.91B+1.5%
Résultat net$5.90B$5.18B$5.50B$6.37B$5.55B-1.5%
BPA (dilué)$38.07$33.97$36.51$42.01$35.31-1.9%
EBITDA$8.79B$6.92B$7.87B$9.36B$9.36B+1.6%
R&D——————
SG&A$2.22B$2.06B$2.09B$2.26B$2.63B+4.3%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
0.71×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Pass
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
9.2%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

BLK intrinsic value questions

  1. BLK (BLK)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

BLK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BLK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1085 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $459–$889), which implies roughly 38.2% downside to the midpoint.

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