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CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics. Fair value range: low $140, high $274, with mid-point at $201.
Stock analysis

CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $201–$274

CRWD
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-10Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Cours
$527.77
▼ -327.06 (-61.97%)
Juste valeur
$201
$201–$274
Notation
Vendre
confidence 82/100
Potentiel de hausse
-62.0%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$170.60
buy below · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$134.3B
P/E fwd 85.6
Repli en anglaisFR
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§1 Résumé

  • Trading at ~85x forward PEG and ~27x EV/Rev, disconnected from fundamental realities.
  • Massive $1.09B SBC heavily suppresses true GAAP profitability and unit economics.
  • Target $200.71 assumes deceleration to ~12% growth and an 8x terminal multiple.
  • Reverse DCF shows consensus expectations are mathematically unsupportable.
Fair value
$201
Margin of safety
-163.0%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$527.77Price
FV $200.71
High $273.98

CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics.

  • Data network effects generated by
    Data network effects generated by the distributed Falcon platform.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated enterprise cybersecurity stacks.
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated cyber threat landscape and strict regulatory mandates drive mandatory IT budget allocations toward premium vendors.

§2 Cas baissier

Intensifying competition compresses growth to mid-teens earlier than expected. Simultaneously, stubborn SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. continuously dilutes shareholders, preventing EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. scaling and driving extreme multiple contraction.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Microsoft Price War

· High

Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.

FV impact
Severe

SBC Revolt

· Medium

Institutional investors refuse to tolerate >20% SBC/Revenue, forcing cash compensation and tanking operating cash flows.

FV impact
High

Platform Breach

· Low

A catastrophic Falcon update or architectural breach severely impairs brand trust and sinks net retention rates.

FV impact
Terminal
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
YoY revenue growth drops below 20% in the next two quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue remains anchored above 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression emerges from enterprise pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention consistently falls below the 120% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in the already distorted OCF-to-Net-Income ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4TCAC
Période2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$1.45B$2.24B$3.06B$3.95B$4.81B+34.9%
Marge brute$1.07B$1.64B$2.30B$2.96B$3.59B+35.4%
Résultat d'exploitation$-142.5M$-190.1M$-19.1M$-116.4M$-293.3M—
Résultat net$-234.8M$-183.2M$72.2M$-15.2M$-162.5M—
BPA (dilué)$-1.03$-0.79$0.37$-0.08——
EBITDA$-66.0M$-40.8M$276.7M$298.8M$182.5M—
R&D$371.3M$608.4M$780.3M$1.08B$1.38B+39.0%
SG&A$839.6M$1.22B$1.54B$2.00B$2.50B+31.4%

Scores de qualité

Piotroski F-score
4 / 9
Composite qualité 0–9
Altman Z-score
12.78
Risque de faillite (>3 sûr)
Beneish M-score
-2.95
Risque de manipulation des résultats
OCF / Résultat net
-9.92
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
-0.0%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

CRWD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $528 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $201 (range $140–$274), which implies roughly 62.0% downside to the midpoint.

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