Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $21.3, high $52.5, with mid-point at $34.5.
Stock analysis

CSX fair value $21–$53

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-20Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
View archive
Cours
$46.08
▼ -11.57 (-25.11%)
Juste valeur
$35
$21–$53
Notation
Vendre
confidence 82/100
Potentiel de hausse
-25.1%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$29.33
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$85.6B
P/E fwd 21.4
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
Ce rapport n'a pas encore été traduit. Actualisez dans quelques minutes une fois que la file d'attente de traduction aura rattrapé son retard.

§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $35 with high case $53.
  • Implied downside of 25.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Turnaround.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$35
Margin of safety
-33.5%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$46.08Price
Low $21.30
Mid $34.51
High $52.53

CSX trades against a final fair-value range of $21.30-$52.53, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • 20,000-mile Eastern US rail network
    20,000-mile Eastern US rail network rights-of-way
  • Network effects from 30+ intermodal
    Network effects from 30+ intermodal terminal connections
  • Cycle upside
    Sustained industrial production growth >3% and recovering intermodal demand.

§2 Cas baissier

A combined 10% volume contraction in industrial carloads paired with a 25% surge in diesel fuel prices would expand the operating ratio to ~70%. Under this scenario, mandatory capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). of $2.9B would consume nearly 100% of operating cash flowOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement., threatening capital returns and debt covenants.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Accelerated Coal Decarbonization

30%· Medium

A rapid utility pivot away from coal removes 15%+ of high-margin carload volume, causing structural deleveraging of fixed network costs and permanent margin compression.

FV impact
-35%
Trigger
12-36 months

Capex Trap / Normalization Failure

40%· High

Capital intensity remains at ~20% of revenue through FY2027 as turnaround efforts fail to yield operational gains, leaving free cash flow suppressed indefinitely.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
18-24 months

Regulatory Pricing Intervention

20%· Medium

The Surface Transportation Board mandates restrictive rate caps for captive shippers to fight industrial inflation, stripping the company of its core pricing power.

FV impact
-40%
Trigger
24-48 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Operating Ratio (OR) exceeding 65% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-Revenue ratio remaining above 18% into FY2027.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net Debt / EBITDA ratio climbing toward 4.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Intermodal carload growth trailing trucking sector volumes by >300bps.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio dropping below 0.4x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3TCAC
Période2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$14.85B$14.66B$14.54B$14.09B-1.7%
Marge brute$5.72B$5.50B$5.35B$4.69B-6.4%
Résultat d'exploitation$5.80B$5.53B$5.40B$4.72B-6.6%
Résultat net$4.11B$3.67B$3.47B$2.89B-11.1%
BPA (dilué)$1.95$1.85$1.79$1.54-7.6%
EBITDA$7.59B$7.25B$7.05B$6.29B-6.1%
R&D—————
SG&A$-79.0M$-29.0M$-50.0M$-33.0M—

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
1.6×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
11.2%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Rapport complet pour chaque action couverte
24 mois d'archives de notations
Briefings de liste de suivi + alertes de changement de notation
Export PDF + DOCX dans n'importe quelle langue
Démarrer l'essai gratuit
Annulable à tout moment.
REVENUE FAQ

CSX revenue questions

  1. CSX (CSX)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.

FAQ

CSX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CSX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $46.1 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $34.5 (range $21.3–$52.5), which implies roughly 25.1% downside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of CSX also follow

Same archetype: turnaround