Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality. Fair value range: low $92.1, high $213, with mid-point at $152.
Analysé: 2026-05-20·Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-20·Methodology v2.4·Data cut-off:·Quality gate: pass·Sources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gates·Review: automated·Archetype: Cyclical
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§1 Résumé
Fair value of $152.45 relies on a composite of normalized FCFF DCF ($111.85) and Owner Earnings ($193.04).
Current valuation relies heavily on peak spot commodity prices rather than normalized 35% mid-cycle margins.
A 12x terminal multiple appropriately caps mature growth expectations for this highly cyclical E&P.
Fair value
$152
Margin of safety
-34.0%
Confidence
72/100
Moat
3/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$204.33Price
Low $92.09
Mid $152.45
High $212.81
Diamondback Energy is a strong Permian pure-play E&P with robust free cash flow generation at mid-cycle prices, though it remains inherently exposed to commodity cyclicality.
Our financial-history view of FANG (FANG) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
The revenue trajectory is reported in the financial-history section with year-over-year growth rates. Direction and acceleration are summarised inline; the full table sits within the parent financials tab.
We track operating income alongside operating margin so the reader can separate top-line growth from operating leverage. The numbers analysis subsection flags one-offs, restructuring, and stock-based-compensation effects when material.
Net income is shown together with EPS so dilution and buybacks are visible alongside profit. Where reported net income diverges materially from operating cash flow, the discrepancy is called out in the numbers-analysis subsection.
FAQ
FANG — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, FANG looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $204 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $152 (range $92.1–$213), which implies roughly 25.4% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for FANG is $92.1–$213, with a midpoint of $152. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for FANG's archetype.
Our current rating for FANG is Sell with a confidence score of 72/100. Sell. The stock is severely disconnected from mid-cycle fundamental realities, requiring peak conditions to justify the current valuation. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for FANG are: Severe Commodity Downcycle; Cost Inflation Squeeze; M&A Integration Failure. The single biggest risk is Severe Commodity Downcycle: Global demand destruction pushes crude below $60/bbl structurally, eliminating free cash flow generation.
Our current rating for FANG is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 72/100 and a moat score of 3/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($92.1–$213) versus the current price of $204.
FANG is classified as a cyclical stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for FANG.
