Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
NASDAQ: GOOGL · Real-Time Price · USD
$401
+2.83 (+0.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: GOOGL rated Buy
With a 10% discount to our $385 fair value and a 20-year wide moat, Alphabet offers an attractive entry point for long-term compounder investors.
Fair value (mid)
$377 / share
$285 – $465
Upside to FV
+9.9%
from $401
Confidence
85/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Google Cloud capturing an outsized share of enterprise AI workloads, driving massive margin expansion and multi-year double-digit EPS growth.
Biggest risk
DOJ Breakup
Forced breakup of the Search/Android ecosystem or structural margin degradation from high-cost generative AI queries.
Recommended action
Buy
Alphabet offers a rare combination of a monopolistic core business, a high-growth enterprise cloud segment, and a fortress balance sheet at a reasonable valuation.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | 4.24T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 422.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 160.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $13.1 | |
| Shares out | 12.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 30.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 25.9x | |
| Dividend | $0.88 (0.22%) | |
| Volume | 21,449,235 | |
| Beta | 1.27 | |
| Price target | $392 | -2.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 422.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 160.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $13.1
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.9x
- Market cap
- 4.24T
| Item | P1 | P2 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Revenue | $307B | $350B | $403B |
| Operating Income | $84B | $112B | $129B |
| Net Income | $74B | $100B | $132B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.80 | $8.04 | $10.81 |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $285
- Fair value (mid)
- $377
- Fair value (high)
- $465
- Current price
- $401
- Upside to mid
- +9.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $395 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $385 | 25% |
| FCFF DCF | $410 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $260 | 10% |
| Forward earnings | $390 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $350 | 10% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$392
-2.3%
In the news
Latest news · GOOGL
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- 4.24T
- P/E (trailing)
- 30.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 25.9x
- P/S
- 11.5x
- P/B
- 10.1x
- PEG
- 1.99
- EV / EBITDA
- 29.9x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 60.4%
- Operating margin
- 32.7%
- ROE
- 38.9%
- ROA
- 14.6%
- ROIC
- 28.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.20
- Current ratio
- 1.92
- Quick ratio
- 1.71
Trading
- Beta
- 1.27
- Volume
- 21,449,235
- Dividend yield
- 0.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: 10.9% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$480
+37.0% from spot
Alphabet successfully navigates the AI transition, proving that conversational interfaces actually increase commercial intent and ad conversion rates, while Cloud captures a massive share of enterprise AI inference workloads.
- AI native ad formats increase overall monetization
- Cloud margins expand to 25%
- Regulatory action results in benign behavioral remedies
Base55%
Price target
$385
+9.9% from spot
The core business continues to grind higher despite elevated competitive noise. Cloud becomes a massive profit center, offsetting any margin dilution from higher AI inference costs.
- Search volume grows at low single digits
- Cloud revenue grows 20%+ through 2028
- Operating margins hold steady around 32-33%
Bear20%
Price target
$280
-20.1% from spot
A forced break of the Apple default search agreement causes significant market share leakage, while the cost to serve AI-augmented queries structurally depresses gross margins.
- DOJ forces structural remedies altering default search placement
- Conversational AI cannibalizes 15% of high-margin queries
- Capex remains structurally elevated
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $377.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $395 | -1.4% | |
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $385 | -3.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $410 | +2.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $260 | -35.1% | |
| Forward earnings | 10% | $390 | -2.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 10% | $350 | -12.7% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $377 | +9.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.22% | $450 | $480 | $520 | $570 | $630 |
| 9.72% | $410 | $435 | $465 | $500 | $545 |
| 10.22% | $375 | $395 | $420 | $445 | $480 |
| 10.72% | $345 | $360 | $380 | $400 | $430 |
| 11.22% | $320 | $335 | $350 | $365 | $385 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Revenue Growth8.0
Margin Trend9.0
Moat Trend8.0
Capital Allocation9.0
Balance Sheet10.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Valuation7.0
Management8.0
Macro Sensitivity7.0
Regulatory Risk4.0
Weighted composite
7.9/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 100% | 8.0 | |
| Margin Trend | 1% | 9.0 | |
| Moat Trend | 2% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Allocation | 100% | 9.0 | |
| Balance Sheet | 100% | 10.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 100% | 9.0 | |
| Valuation | 100% | 7.0 | |
| Management | 100% | 8.0 | |
| Macro Sensitivity | 100% | 7.0 | |
| Regulatory Risk | 100% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 85/100
Target weight
5.0%
of equity sleeve
$325
$300
$401
$450
$480
Quarterly monitoring
- Search Revenue Growth < 8% → Reassess
Risk to thesis
- Moderate downside risk. The primary danger is a black-swan regulatory breakup or rapid consumer behavioral shift away from traditional search.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E25.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E32.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE38.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC28.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on GOOGL
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this GOOGL report
What is the current GOOGL stock rating?
Alphabet Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full GOOGL analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/GOOGL/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for GOOGL?
The latest report frames GOOGL around $285 to $465. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the GOOGL page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyGOOGL · Fair value $377+9.9% · Confidence 85/100