IBM trades against a final fair-value range of $239.16-$326.13, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $239, high $326, with mid-point at $283.
Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$283
Margin of safety
+18.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$229.76Price
Low $239.16
Mid $282.5
High $326.13
IBM trades against a final fair-value range of $239.16-$326.13, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs for legacy
High switching costs for legacy enterprise infrastructure
Mission-critical hybrid cloud deployments via
Mission-critical hybrid cloud deployments via Red Hat
IBM (IBM)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.
The deceleration curve is calibrated by archetype: hyper-growth names get a 5-10 percentage-point-per-year glide path, mature compounders converge to GDP-plus-inflation. Visibility-adjusted deceleration is documented in the assumption ledger.
Where the company reports segments, the segment composition is included in the financials section. The competitive-moat tab covers the qualitative drivers (pricing power, switching costs, distribution).
The parent financials tab carries five years of standardized revenue history. For the longer-term trend, the report's appendix logs data provenance and the source dataset identifier.
FAQ
IBM — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, IBM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $230 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $283 (range $239–$326), which implies roughly 22.9% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for IBM is $239–$326, with a midpoint of $283. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for IBM's archetype.
Our current rating for IBM is Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. IBM is rated Buy at $229.76 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $282.50, implying +22.95% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for IBM are: Hyperscaler Compression; Consulting Collapse; Gen AI Disruption. The single biggest risk is Hyperscaler Compression: Cloud providers aggressively price hybrid solutions, eroding IBM's software operating margin expansion.
Our current rating for IBM is Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($239–$326) versus the current price of $230.
IBM is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for IBM.
