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INTU trades against a final fair-value range of $369.17-$605.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $369, high $605, with mid-point at $486.
Stock analysis

INTU Intuit Inc. fair value $486–$605

INTU
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-09Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Cours
$396.31
▲ +89.90 (+22.68%)
Juste valeur
$486
$486–$605
Notation
Acheter
confidence 88/100
Potentiel de hausse
+22.7%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$413.28
buy below · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$110.3B
P/E fwd 15.0
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $486 with high case $605.
  • Implied upside of 22.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$486
Margin of safety
+18.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$396.31Price
FV $486.21
High $605.35

INTU trades against a final fair-value range of $369.17-$605.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core accounting software (QuickBooks) limiting SMB defection.
  • Strong network effects and cross-selling
    Strong network effects and cross-selling capabilities within the Intuit ecosystem.
  • Bull thesis
    Market implied expectations (9.1% growth) sit below analyst consensus (14%).

§2 Cas baissier

A combined macro shock and IRS direct intervention. SMB bankruptcies spike, collapsing QuickBooks seat growth and Mailchimp cross-sells. Concurrently, IRS Direct File captures 20% of the simple return market. Operating margins compress to 25% as fixed R&D and elevated SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. (10.4% of revenue) deleverage.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

IRS Direct File Domination

· Low

Government filing service expands beyond simple returns, permanently impairing TurboTax volume and pricing power.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-3 Years

SMB Ecosystem Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged recession triggers a wave of SMB insolvencies, driving double-digit churn in QuickBooks and Mailchimp.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Mailchimp Integration Failure

· Low

Synergies between QuickBooks and Mailchimp fail to materialize, leading to substantial goodwill impairment ($13.9B total goodwill) and stunted ARPU.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
2 Years
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
TurboTax unit volume growth turns consistently negative year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
QuickBooks Online subscriber churn exceeds historical mid-single-digit averages.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation surpasses 12% of total revenue without offset.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Mailchimp average revenue per user (ARPU) stagnates or declines.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins fail to maintain the 28% floor modeled in the base case.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3TCAC
Période2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$12.73B$14.37B$16.29B$18.83B+14.0%
Marge brute$10.32B$11.23B$12.82B$14.98B+13.2%
Résultat d'exploitation$2.56B$3.14B$3.85B$4.94B+24.5%
Résultat net$2.07B$2.38B$2.96B$3.87B+23.3%
BPA (dilué)$7.28$8.42$10.43$13.67+23.4%
EBITDA$3.37B$4.04B$4.58B$5.89B+20.5%
R&D$2.35B$2.54B$2.75B$2.93B+7.7%
SG&A$5.00B$5.06B$5.73B$6.64B+9.9%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
1.6×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
15.2%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Rapport complet pour chaque action couverte
24 mois d'archives de notations
Briefings de liste de suivi + alertes de changement de notation
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FAQ

INTU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, INTU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $396 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $486 (range $369–$605), which implies roughly 22.7% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: mature-compounder
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