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INTU trades against a final fair-value range of $369.17-$605.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $369, high $605, with mid-point at $486.
Stock analysis

INTU fair value $369–$605

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-09Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Cours
$396.31
▲ +89.90 (+22.68%)
Juste valeur
$486
$369–$605
Notation
Acheter
confidence 88/100
Potentiel de hausse
+22.7%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$413.28
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$110.3B
P/E fwd 15.0
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $486 with high case $605.
  • Implied upside of 22.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$486
Margin of safety
+18.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$396.31Price
Low $369.17
Mid $486.21
High $605.35

INTU trades against a final fair-value range of $369.17-$605.35, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core accounting software (QuickBooks) limiting SMB defection.
  • Strong network effects and cross-selling
    Strong network effects and cross-selling capabilities within the Intuit ecosystem.
  • Bull thesis
    Market implied expectations (9.1% growth) sit below internal valuation cross-checks (14%).

§2 Cas baissier

A combined macro shock and IRS direct intervention. SMB bankruptcies spike, collapsing QuickBooks seat growth and Mailchimp cross-sells. Concurrently, IRS Direct File captures 20% of the simple return market. Operating margins compress to 25% as fixed R&D and elevated SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. (10.4% of revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.) deleverage.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

IRS Direct File Domination

· Low

Government filing service expands beyond simple returns, permanently impairing TurboTax volume and pricing power.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-3 Years

SMB Ecosystem Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged recession triggers a wave of SMB insolvencies, driving double-digit churn in QuickBooks and Mailchimp.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Mailchimp Integration Failure

· Low

Synergies between QuickBooks and Mailchimp fail to materialize, leading to substantial goodwill impairment ($13.9B total goodwill) and stunted ARPU.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
2 Years
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
TurboTax unit volume growth turns consistently negative year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
QuickBooks Online subscriber churn exceeds historical mid-single-digit averages.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation surpasses 12% of total revenue without offset.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Mailchimp average revenue per user (ARPU) stagnates or declines.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins fail to maintain the 28% floor modeled in the base case.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3TCAC
Période2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$12.73B$14.37B$16.29B$18.83B+14.0%
Marge brute$10.32B$11.23B$12.82B$14.98B+13.2%
Résultat d'exploitation$2.56B$3.14B$3.85B$4.94B+24.5%
Résultat net$2.07B$2.38B$2.96B$3.87B+23.3%
BPA (dilué)$7.28$8.42$10.43$13.67+23.4%
EBITDA$3.37B$4.04B$4.58B$5.89B+20.5%
R&D$2.35B$2.54B$2.75B$2.93B+7.7%
SG&A$5.00B$5.06B$5.73B$6.64B+9.9%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
1.6×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
15.2%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

INTU scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for INTU (INTU) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

INTU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, INTU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $396 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $486 (range $369–$605), which implies roughly 22.7% upside to the midpoint.

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