Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

NYSE: ITW · USD

$276

+0.44 (+0.2%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: ITW rated Sell

Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$195 / share

Potential value

$223 / share

Upside to FV

-25.8%

from $276

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$74.9B
Revenue (ttm)	16.6B
Net income (ttm)	3.2B
EPS (ttm)	$11.2
Shares out	284.8M
P/E (trailing)	24.7x
P/E (forward)	21.9x
Dividend	$6.88 (2.50%)
Volume	971,173
Beta	0.97

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 16.6B
Net income (ttm): 3.2B
EPS (ttm): $11.2
P/E (trailing): 24.7x
P/E (forward): 21.9x
Market cap: $74.9B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$14.46B	$15.93B	$16.11B	$15.90B	$16.04B	+2.6%
Gross profit	$5.97B	$6.50B	$6.79B	$6.94B	$7.08B	+4.4%
Operating income	$3.48B	$3.79B	$4.04B	$4.26B	$4.22B	+4.9%
Net income	$2.69B	$3.03B	$2.96B	$3.49B	$3.07B	+3.3%
EPS (diluted)	$8.51	$9.77	$9.74	$11.71	$10.49	+5.4%
EBITDA	$3.66B	$4.18B	$4.04B	$5.11B	$4.65B	+6.2%
R&D	$239.0M	$269.0M	$284.0M	$292.0M	$302.0M	+6.0%
SG&A	$2.36B	$2.58B	$2.62B	$2.68B	$2.78B	+4.2%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	505.6B	80.8x	7.9x	17.7%	+3.7%	+29.1%	Vendre
ABT	Abbott Laboratories	177.6B	38.2x	3.7x	7.2%	+2.7%	-17.2%	Réduire
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	Conserver
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	Conserver
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	Conserver
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	Conserver

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$195.02

-25.8% from spot

Under the base path, ITW delivers disciplined operational execution across operating segments. Free cash flow conversion exceeds guided benchmarks, supporting dividend compounding and regular share repurchases. Discounted at the house cost of equity with normalized terminal valuation multiples, this yields the central Fair value of $195.02.

Organic revenue growth tracks full-year company guidance in FY2026 and moderates along steady historical trends through FY2030
Operating margins expand within guided ranges in FY2026, supported by ongoing enterprise initiative contributions through FY2030
Incremental operating margins meet management targets as input cost timing friction normalizes,
Effective operating tax rate aligns with guided operational expectations
Annual share repurchases proceed in line with guided capital return plans

Bull20%

Price target

$222.75

-15.3% from spot

Global industrial demand accelerates across North America, EMEA, and Asia Pacific. Accelerated adoption of Customer-Back Innovation products expands market share while operational cell efficiencies deliver strong incremental margins. Free cash flow conversion exceeds net earnings, funding accelerated buybacks that expand diluted share compounding and lift intrinsic valuation toward Potential value of $222.75.

Consolidated organic revenue growth accelerates meaningfully above guided expectations across all operating segments
Enterprise initiatives deliver structural annual operating margin expansion surpassing management baselines,
Full-year incremental operating margins comfortably exceed guided targets as price and cost dynamics normalize
Enterprise operating margin reaches management long-term targets ahead of the FY2030 horizon
Annual free cash flow conversion exceeds guided baselines, supporting accelerated share repurchases,

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($195.02). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
8.3%	$207	$211	$215	$219	$224
8.8%	$198	$201	$204	$208	$212
9.3%	$190	$192	$195	$198	$201
9.8%	$183	$185	$187	$190	$192
10.3%	$176	$178	$180	$182	$184

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E21.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E23.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE101.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC29.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ITW indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

286

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000049826
Company name	Illinois Tool Works Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	452308109
Earnings date	2026-10-27
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	43,000
Employees change	-1,000
Employees growth	-2.27%
Enterprise value	$87.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1912
In index	SP500
Industry	Specialty Industrial Machinery
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US4523081093
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-13
Last earnings date	2026-10-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2006-05-26
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$78.7B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-02-02
Options	Yes
Price	$276.36
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	3560
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ITW
U.S. state	Illinois
Website	https://www.itw.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	24.63x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	23.88x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	23.54x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	23.52x
Earnings yield	4.06%
EV/Earnings	27x
EV/EBIT	19.49x
EV/EBITDA	17.9x
EV/FCF	29.83x
EV/Sales	5.24x
FCF / EV yield	3.35%
FCF yield	3.72%
Forward EV/Sales	5.05x
Forward P/E	22.88x
Forward P/S	4.55x
Graham number	52.76084
Graham upside	-80.88%
Industry forward P/E	24.96x
Industry P/E	31.67x
Lynch fair value	$56.05
Lynch upside	-79.69%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	27.6x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	24.14x
P/B ratio	25x
P/E ratio	24.65x
P/FCF ratio	26.9x
P/OCF ratio	23.6x
P/S ratio	4.72x
PEG ratio	3.02x
Price/EBITDA ratio	16.14x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	26.86%
EBITDA margin	29.24%
Effective tax rate	23.18%
FCF margin	17.74%
Gross margin	44.32%
Operating margin	26.86%
Pretax margin	25.24%
Profit margin	19.39%
Profit per employee	$75,070
Profitable quarters	34
Profitable years	35
Revenue per employee	$387,116
ROA	17.13%
ROA (5Y)	16.01%
ROCE	39.23%
ROE	101.65%
ROE (5Y)	94.07%
ROIC	29.29%
ROIC (5Y)	30.56%
SBC / revenue	0.45%
Tax / revenue	5.85%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	8.77%
EPS growth (Q)	6.76%
EPS growth (QoQ)	5.63%
EPS growth 10Y	7.43%
EPS growth 3Y	2.83%
EPS growth 5Y	5.45%
EPS growth quarters	3
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	7.23%
FCF growth 3Y	4.13%
FCF growth 5Y	4.41%
Gross profit growth	5.73%
Gross profit growth (Q)	5.76%
Gross profit growth 3Y	2.84%
Gross profit growth 5Y	4.38%
Net income growth	6.68%
Net income growth (Q)	4.14%
Net income growth (QoQ)	4.91%
Net income growth 3Y	0.85%
Net income growth 5Y	3.43%
Net income growth quarters	3
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	5.82%
OCF growth 10Y	3.23%
OCF growth 3Y	3.06%
OCF growth 5Y	4.91%
Operating income growth	6.53%
Operating income growth (Q)	4.81%
Operating income growth 3Y	3.15%
Operating income growth 5Y	4.73%
Revenue growth	4.8%
Revenue growth (Q)	4.36%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-1.51%
Revenue growth 10Y	2.14%
Revenue growth 3Y	1.13%
Revenue growth 5Y	3.16%
Revenue growth quarters	5
Revenue growth years	1

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-409M
Depreciation and amortization	$397M
EBIT	$4.5B
EBITDA	$4.9B
EPS	$11.21
FCF per share	$10.26
Financing cash flow	$-2.8B
Free cash flow	$2.9B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$2.8B
Gross profit	$7.4B
Income taxes	$974M
Investing cash flow	$-521M
Net borrowing	$899M
Net cash flow	$51M
Net income	$3.2B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$3.3B
Operating income	$4.5B
Revenue	$16.6B
Stock-based compensation	$74M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	8.08
Book value per share	$11.04
Debt / EBITDA	1.9
Debt / equity	2.98
Debt / FCF	3.21
Goodwill	$5.1B
Interest coverage	14.42
Long-term assets	$9.9B
Long-term liabilities	$8.3B
Net cash (debt)	$-8.6B
Net cash / market cap	-10.9%
Net debt / EBITDA	1.76
Net debt / equity	2.73
Net debt / FCF	2.93
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$2.3B
Shareholders' equity	$3.1B
Tangible book value	$-2.5B
Tangible book value per share	$-8.70
Total assets	$16.5B
Total cash	$809M
Total debt	$9.4B
Total liabilities	$13.4B
WACC	8.86%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.02
Current assets	$6.6B
Current liabilities	$5.1B
Current ratio	1.29
Inventory turnover	5.22
Net working capital	$2.9B
Quick ratio	0.85
Working capital	$1.5B
Working capital turnover	9.03

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	1.98%
Dividend growth	7.2%
Dividend growth (10Y)	11.03%
Dividend growth (3Y)	7.11%
Dividend growth (5Y)	7.14%
Dividend growth years	56
Dividend payment date	2026-10-09
Dividend payment years	56
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$6.88
Dividend yield	2.5%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-30
FCF payout ratio	67.08%
Last dividend	$1.72
Payout ratio	61.37%
Shareholder yield	4.47%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	142.2%
10Y return CAGR	11.87%
10Y total return	206.91%
150-day SMA	$268.57
15Y price change	458.07%
15Y return CAGR	14.81%
15Y total return	693.87%
1D price change	0.16%
1M price change	0.05%
1M total return	0.7%
1W price change	-0.19%
1W total return	-0.19%
1Y price change	10.75%
1Y return CAGR	13.6%
1Y total return	13.59%
20-day SMA	$269.65
200-day SMA	$270.41
20Y price change	483.59%
20Y return CAGR	11.89%
20Y total return	845.07%
3M price change	-3.64%
3M total return	-3.01%
3Y price change	22.93%
3Y return CAGR	9.71%
3Y total return	32.07%
50-day SMA	$271.50
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$303.16
52-week high date	2026-02-12
52-week low	$238.82
52-week low date	2025-11-18
5Y price change	23.52%
5Y return CAGR	6.82%
5Y total return	39.09%
6M price change	1.75%
6M total return	3.03%
All-time high	$303.16
All-time high date	2026-02-12
All-time low	$0.48
All-time low date	1974-12-23
Average true range (ATR)	$5.99
Average volume	1.3M
Beta (1Y)	0.22
Beta (2Y)	0.62
Beta (5Y)	0.97
Change from 52-week high	-8.84%
Change from 52-week low	15.72%
Change from all-time high	-9.47%
Change from all-time low	57,487.08%
Change from open	0.33%
Day's gap	-0.17%
Dollar volume	$268.4M
High price	$276.40
Low price	$273.44
Monthly RSI	54.47
Open price	$275.46
Position in 52-week range	98.65%
Premarket change	0.03%
Premarket close	$275.93
Premarket price	$276.00
Previous close	$275.93
Price vs 150-day SMA	2.19%
Price vs 20-day SMA	1.78%
Price vs 200-day SMA	1.5%
Price vs 50-day SMA	1.09%
Relative volume	0.75
RSI	54.57
Sharpe ratio	0.52
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.37
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.22
Sortino ratio	1.08
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.84
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.59
Volume	971.2K
Weekly RSI	52.6
YTD price change	11.43%
YTD total return	13.55%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	257.7M
Float percentage	90.5%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.59%
Shares change (YoY)	-1.98%
Shares held by insiders	0.34%
Shares held by institutions	86.54%
Shares outstanding	284.8M
Short % of float	3.57%
Short % of shares	3.23%
Short ratio	6.7 days

Deeper analysis on ITW

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ITW report

What is the latest published ITW stock rating?

Illinois Tool Works Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ITW analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/ITW/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ITW?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives ITW a fair value of USD 195 and a potential value of USD 223. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ITW page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellITW · Fair value $195-25.8%

Read full analysis →

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

Our latest published analysis: ITW rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ITW

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ITW indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ITW

Frequently asked questions

Historique des notations

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	3.5
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	4.0
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	6.5
Capital Efficiency	8.5