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Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization. Fair value range: low $182, high $282, with mid-point at $228.
Stock analysis

LULU fair value $182–$282

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-19Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Cours
$119.22
▲ +109.26 (+91.65%)
Juste valeur
$228
$182–$282
Notation
Achat fort
confidence 82/100
Potentiel de hausse
+91.7%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$194.21
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$14.3B
P/E fwd 9.0
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Market implies a pessimistic -4.5% perpetual growth, creating a deep discount for a 25.8% ROIC compounder.
  • Clean accounting and robust cash conversion (OCF/NI > 1.0) provide strong fundamental downside support.
  • Extreme peer PEG dispersion justifies isolating core intrinsic cash generation models.
Fair value
$228
Margin of safety
+47.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$119.22Price
Low $181.93
Mid $228.48
High $281.62

Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization.

  • Intangible brand equity
    Intangible brand equity
  • Direct-to-consumer distribution scale
    Direct-to-consumer distribution scale
  • Cycle upside
    Consumer demand for premium athleisure remains structurally robust, and international market penetration accelerates rapidly.

§2 Cas baissier

A severe recession combined with an accelerated shift in athleisure trends could force elevated markdowns, permanently impairing gross margins and compressing ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. toward the cost of capital.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

DTC Moat Erosion

· High

Upstart competitors successfully bifurcate the premium athleisure market, forcing sustained promotional activity and driving gross margins structurally below 50%.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-24 months

International Stagnation

· Medium

China expansion falters due to geopolitical friction or domestic preference, permanently removing the primary long-term growth engine from the terminal valuation.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months

Macro Demand Shock

· Low

Prolonged consumer discretionary weakness stalls the men's category growth and causes consecutive quarters of negative comparable store sales in North America.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
6-12 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Consecutive quarters of declining gross marginsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inventory growth substantially outpacing sales growthMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained weakness in direct-to-consumer channel conversionMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative comparable store sales in core North American marketsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned executive turnover in merchandising or supply chainMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4TCAC
Période2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$6.26B$8.11B$9.62B$10.59B$11.10B+15.4%
Marge brute$3.61B$4.49B$5.61B$6.27B$6.28B+14.9%
Résultat d'exploitation$1.37B$1.73B$2.21B$2.51B$2.21B+12.6%
Résultat net$975.3M$854.8M$1.55B$1.81B$1.58B+12.8%
BPA (dilué)$7.49$6.68$12.20$14.64$13.26+15.3%
EBITDA$1.60B$2.02B$2.59B$2.95B$2.71B+14.1%
R&D——————
SG&A$2.23B$2.76B$3.40B$3.76B$4.07B+16.3%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
1.02×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
25.8%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

LULU scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for LULU (LULU) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

LULU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LULU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $119 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $228 (range $182–$282), which implies roughly 91.7% upside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: mature-compounder