MAR trades against a final fair-value range of $151.90-$303.69, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $152, high $304, with mid-point at $228.
Analysé: 2026-05-20·Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-20·Methodology v2.4·Data cut-off:·Quality gate: pass·Sources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gates·Review: automated·Archetype: Mature compounder
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$228
Margin of safety
-57.4%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$358.69Price
Low $151.9
Mid $227.84
High $303.69
MAR trades against a final fair-value range of $151.90-$303.69, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
Global scale and brand portfolio
Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.
Cycle upside
Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.
Free cash flow for MAR (MAR) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.
Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.
The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.
FAQ
MAR — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, MAR looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $359 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $228 (range $152–$304), which implies roughly 36.5% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for MAR is $152–$304, with a midpoint of $228. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for MAR's archetype.
Our current rating for MAR is Sell with a confidence score of 88/100. MAR is rated Sell at $358.69 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $227.84, implying -36.48% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for MAR are: Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze; Valuation Multiple Mean Reversion; Structural Corporate Travel Decline. The single biggest risk is The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Our current rating for MAR is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($152–$304) versus the current price of $359.
MAR is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for MAR.
