The Mosaic Company (MOS)

NYSE: MOS · USD

$18.3

-0.51 (-2.7%)· Recorded snapshot

Repli en anglaisFR

Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction

Ce rapport n'a pas encore été traduit. Actualisez dans quelques minutes une fois que la file d'attente de traduction aura rattrapé son retard.

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-17

Our latest published analysis: MOS rated Hold

The Mosaic Company's published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$19.6 / share

Potential value

$27.5 / share

Upside to FV

+3.9%

from $18.3

Moat

5.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$6.0B
Revenue (ttm)	12.2B
Net income (ttm)	-638.5M
EPS (ttm)	-$2.01
Shares out	317.9M
P/E (forward)	9.4x
Dividend	$0.88 (4.81%)
Volume	5,909,586
Beta	0.92

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 12.2B
Net income (ttm): -638.5M
EPS (ttm): -$2.01
P/E (forward): 9.4x
Market cap: $6.0B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$12.36B	$19.13B	$13.70B	$11.12B	$12.05B	-0.6%
Gross profit	$3.20B	$5.76B	$2.21B	$1.51B	$1.90B	-12.2%
Operating income	$2.47B	$4.79B	$1.34B	$621.5M	$821.5M	-24.0%
Net income	$1.63B	$3.58B	$1.16B	$174.9M	$540.7M	-24.1%
EPS (diluted)	$4.27	$10.06	$3.50	$0.55	$1.70	-20.6%
EBITDA	$3.23B	$5.75B	$2.48B	$1.57B	$2.48B	-6.4%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$430.5M	$498.0M	$500.5M	$496.9M	$533.9M	+5.5%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	Conserver
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	Conserver
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	Vendre
APD	Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.	68.3B	—	5.4x	8.9%	+5.2%	+23.1%	Conserver
AVY	Avery Dennison Corporation	13.7B	19.8x	1.5x	15.1%	+3.3%	+1.6%	Conserver
BALL	Ball Corporation	16.7B	18.0x	1.2x	8.7%	+2.3%	+28.3%	Acheter

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$19.55

+3.9% from spot

The Base scenario represents the modal expected path where FY2026 marks the cyclical earnings trough. Management caps FY2026 capital expenditures at $1.2B, while Esterhazy potash operations maintain low-cost production ($84/tonne cash cost). Through FY2027-FY2028, raw material prices gradually normalize from peak levels ($705/long ton Q3 sulfur), allowing Bartow and Faustina to resume higher operating rates. Operating margins recover from 4.5% in FY2026 to 8.5% in FY2027 and 10.0% in FY2028, with EPS recovering to $1.52 in FY2027 and $1.75 in FY2028, supporting our intrinsic fair value of $19.55.

FY2026 operating margin represents the cyclical trough, recovering toward mid-cycle benchmarks across FY2027 and FY2028.
Revenue growth of 0.83% in FY2026 ($12,152M) and 5.3% in FY2027 ($12,797M).
Reinvestment rate restricted to 15.0% in FY2026 ($1.2B capex), normalizing at 25%-30% thereafter.
Normalized blended corporate tax rate across United States and Brazilian operations.
Long-term terminal growth rate aligned with global agricultural demand and normalized valuation multiple.

Bull20%

Price target

$27.54

+46.3% from spot

In the Bull scenario, global sulfur supply bottlenecks resolve swiftly, driving feedstock prices sharply downward and widening phosphate conversion margins. High crop commodity prices incentivize global farmers to replenish depleted soils, driving strong fertilizer application across Brazil and North America. Faustina and Bartow resume full capacity operations, eliminating idle cost absorption penalties. Consolidated operating margins expand to peak levels, free cash flow generation accelerates significantly, and disciplined debt paydown restores balance sheet strength.

Sulfur contract prices decline rapidly toward historical averages, restoring historical phosphate stripping margins.
Latin American nutrient demand rebounds strongly post-drought, driving significant Mosaic Fertilizantes volume recovery.
Faustina and Bartow resume full operating rates, eliminating unabsorbed fixed overhead.
Annual capital expenditures remain disciplined near guided maintenance levels, generating substantial free cash flow.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($19.55). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
8.1%	$20.3	$21.4	$22.8	$24.7	$27.4
8.6%	$19.1	$19.9	$21.0	$22.4	$24.3
9.1%	$18.0	$18.7	$19.6	$20.6	$22.0
9.6%	$17.1	$17.6	$18.3	$19.2	$20.2
10.1%	$16.3	$16.7	$17.3	$18.0	$18.8

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E9.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E167.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE-5.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC2.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All MOS indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

260

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 260 of 260 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001285785
Company name	The Mosaic Company
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	61945C103
Earnings date	2026-11-03
Earnings time	amc
Employees	13,249
Employees change	-516
Employees growth	-3.75%
Enterprise value	$11.6B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1987
In index	SP500
Industry	Agricultural Inputs
IPO date	2004-10-25
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US61945C1036
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-27
Last earnings date	2026-08-04
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$5.8B
Market cap category	Mid-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-03
Options	Yes
Price	$18.29
Price currency	USD
Sector	Materials
SIC code	2870
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	MOS
U.S. state	Florida
Website	https://www.mosaicco.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	12.7x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	30.89x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	34.24x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	22.49x
Earnings yield	-10.99%
EV/EBIT	23.81x
EV/EBITDA	6.72x
EV/Sales	0.94x
FCF / EV yield	-8.2%
FCF yield	-16.41%
Forward EV/Sales	0.92x
Forward P/E	29.48x
Forward P/S	0.46x
Industry forward P/E	12.83x
Industry P/E	45.17x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	13.97x
P/B ratio	0.52x
P/OCF ratio	13x
P/S ratio	0.47x
PEG ratio	1.45x
Price / tangible book value	0.55x
Price/EBITDA ratio	3.36x
Sector forward P/E	15.04x
Sector P/E	22.59x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	3.96%
EBITDA margin	14.03%
Gross margin	11.24%
Operating margin	3.96%
Pretax margin	-2.03%
Profit margin	-5.21%
Profit per employee	$-48,192
Profitable years	6
Revenue per employee	$924,440
ROA	1.24%
ROA (5Y)	5.8%
ROCE	2.36%
ROE	-5.07%
ROE (5Y)	12.76%
ROIC	2.78%
ROIC (5Y)	9.99%
SBC / revenue	0.25%
Tax / revenue	2.99%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth years	1
Gross profit growth	-20.25%
Gross profit growth (Q)	-53.59%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-28.16%
Gross profit growth 5Y	-6.68%
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	-62.52%
OCF growth (Q)	-72.54%
OCF growth (QoQ)	60.65%
OCF growth 10Y	-10.36%
OCF growth 3Y	-47.49%
OCF growth 5Y	-25.33%
Operating income growth	-39.21%
Operating income growth 3Y	-43.65%
Operating income growth 5Y	-17.88%
Revenue growth	8.84%
Revenue growth (Q)	-6.04%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-5.8%
Revenue growth 10Y	4.86%
Revenue growth 3Y	-10.05%
Revenue growth 5Y	4.27%
Revenue growth years	1

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-1.4B
Depreciation and amortization	$1.2B
EBIT	$485.2M
EBITDA	$1.7B
EPS	$-2.01
FCF per share	$-2.98
Financing cash flow	$875.7M
Free cash flow	$-947.1M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$-978.2M
Gross profit	$1.4B
Income taxes	$365.7M
Investing cash flow	$-1.3B
Net borrowing	$1.3B
Net cash flow	$3.4M
Net income	$-638.5M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$412.9M
Operating income	$485.2M
Revenue	$12.2B
Stock-based compensation	$31.1M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	1.81
Book value per share	$36.06
Debt / EBITDA	3.06
Debt / equity	0.52
Goodwill	$969.2M
Interest coverage	1.83
Long-term assets	$19.2B
Long-term liabilities	$8.9B
Net cash (debt)	$-5.8B
Net cash / market cap	-100.27%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.37
Net debt / equity	0.5
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$13.8B
Shareholders' equity	$11.6B
Tangible book value	$10.5B
Tangible book value per share	$33.01
Total assets	$24.6B
Total cash	$294M
Total debt	$6.1B
Total liabilities	$13B
WACC	6.3%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.5
Current assets	$5.4B
Current liabilities	$4.1B
Current ratio	1.34
Inventory turnover	3.23
Net working capital	$2.2B
Quick ratio	0.35
Working capital	$1.4B
Working capital turnover	12.44

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	0.47%
Dividend growth	0%
Dividend growth (10Y)	-2.21%
Dividend growth (3Y)	3.23%
Dividend growth (5Y)	26.19%
Dividend growth years	7
Dividend payment date	2026-12-18
Dividend payment years	16
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.88
Dividend yield	4.81%
Ex-dividend date	2026-12-04
Last dividend	$0.22
Shareholder yield	5.32%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	-23.42%
10Y return CAGR	-0.77%
10Y total return	-7.43%
150-day SMA	$22.67
15Y price change	-70.35%
15Y return CAGR	-5.93%
15Y total return	-60.03%
1D price change	-2.69%
1M price change	-20.36%
1M total return	-20.36%
1W price change	2.6%
1W total return	2.6%
1Y price change	-38.01%
1Y return CAGR	-35.75%
1Y total return	-35.73%
20-day SMA	$19.08
200-day SMA	$23.97
20Y price change	4%
20Y return CAGR	1.84%
20Y total return	44.02%
3M price change	-17.97%
3M total return	-17.28%
3Y price change	-44.62%
3Y return CAGR	-15.28%
3Y total return	-39.2%
50-day SMA	$22.24
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$32.25
52-week high date	2026-03-12
52-week low	$16.99
52-week low date	2026-10-22
5Y price change	-55.48%
5Y return CAGR	-12.78%
5Y total return	-49.51%
6M price change	-21.08%
6M total return	-19.6%
After-hours change	0.25%
After-hours close	$18.29
After-hours price	$18.33
All-time high	$163.25
All-time high date	2008-06-18
All-time low	$6.50
All-time low date	2020-03-18
Average true range (ATR)	$0.82
Average volume	10.8M
Beta (1Y)	0.14
Beta (2Y)	0.81
Beta (5Y)	0.92
Change from 52-week high	-43.3%
Change from 52-week low	7.62%
Change from all-time high	-88.77%
Change from all-time low	181.92%
Change from open	-2.17%
Day's gap	-0.53%
Dollar volume	$108.1M
High price	$18.69
Low price	$18.01
Monthly RSI	35.9
Open price	$18.69
Position in 52-week range	40.44%
Premarket change	-0.16%
Premarket close	$18.79
Premarket price	$18.76
Premarket volume	17.3K
Previous close	$18.79
Price vs 150-day SMA	-19.16%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-3.93%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-23.55%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-17.6%
Relative volume	0.55
RSI	36.92
Sharpe ratio	-0.85
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	-0.35
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	-0.22
Sortino ratio	-1.06
Sortino ratio (3Y)	-0.34
Sortino ratio (5Y)	-0.17
Volume	5.9M
Weekly RSI	35.76
YTD price change	-23.93%
YTD total return	-21.85%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	297.8M
Float percentage	93.68%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.13%
Shares change (YoY)	-0.47%
Shares held by insiders	0.41%
Shares held by institutions	96.26%
Shares outstanding	317.9M
Short % of float	10.07%
Short % of shares	9.44%
Short ratio	3.6 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	113

Deeper analysis on MOS

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this MOS report

What is the latest published MOS stock rating?

The Mosaic Company is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-17. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full MOS analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-17, lives at /stocks/MOS/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for MOS?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-17 gives MOS a fair value of USD 20 and a potential value of USD 28. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the MOS page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-17). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldMOS · Fair value $19.6+3.9%

Read full analysis →

The Mosaic Company (MOS)

Our latest published analysis: MOS rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · MOS

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All MOS indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on MOS

Frequently asked questions

Historique des notations

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	1.5
Revenue Growth	2.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	5.5
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	2.5