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MPWR trades against a final fair-value range of $445.50-$897.61, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $446, high $898, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis

MPWR fair value $446–$898

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-10Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Growth infrastructure
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Cours
$1600.84
▼ -930.38 (-58.12%)
Juste valeur
$670
$446–$898
Notation
Vendre
confidence 48/100
Potentiel de hausse
-58.1%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$569.89
MoS level · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$78.6B
P/E fwd 53.1
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $670 with high case $898.
  • Implied downside of 58.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 48/100 · Growth infrastructure.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-138.8%
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,600.84Price
Low $445.5
Mid $670.46
High $897.61

MPWR trades against a final fair-value range of $445.50-$897.61, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Process IP in high-density power
    Process IP in high-density power management
  • Deep integration into next-gen AI
    Deep integration into next-gen AI server racks
  • Cycle upside
    Hyper-growth phase fueled by generation-defining AI infrastructure build-outs and electrification.

§2 Cas baissier

A cyclical downturn coinciding with multiple compression breaks momentum. If long-term revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. fades to 3% without extreme margin expansion, intrinsic valueIntrinsic valueThe discounted present value of all cash a business will produce over its remaining life. The theoretical anchor for fair value, computed in practice as a range across explicit assumptions. violently resets toward our $422 cross-check floor.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

AI Capex Plateau

· High

Hyperscaler data center spending normalizes, sharply curtailing demand for high-end power management ICs.

FV impact
Downside to $445 floor

Margin Mean Reversion

· Medium

Intensified competition from legacy analog peers compresses operating margins below historical 32% bounds.

FV impact
Significant multiple contraction

Valuation Reality Check

· High

Macro conditions trigger a strict repricing of hyper-growth multiples, collapsing the forward P/E back to a 25x terminal assumption.

FV impact
Convergence to $670 base fair value
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Book-to-bill ratio falling below 1.0MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue exceeding 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex growth turning negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins retreating below 30%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Slowing EV penetration rates reducing automotive semiconductor TAMMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4TCAC
Période2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$1.21B$1.79B$1.82B$2.21B$2.79B+23.3%
Marge brute$685.5M$1.05B$1.02B$1.22B$1.54B+22.4%
Résultat d'exploitation$262.4M$526.8M$481.7M$539.4M$728.6M+29.1%
Résultat net$242.0M$437.7M$427.4M$1.59B$621.5M+26.6%
BPA (dilué)$5.05$9.05$8.76$36.59$12.86+26.3%
EBITDA$291.1M$563.9M$521.9M$575.8M$781.1M+28.0%
R&D$190.6M$240.2M$263.6M$324.7M$382.3M+19.0%
SG&A$232.4M$281.6M$275.7M$356.8M$428.8M+16.5%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
1.35×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
16.2%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Flux de trésorerie

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

MPWR income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of MPWR (MPWR) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

MPWR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MPWR looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1601 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $446–$898), which implies roughly 58.1% downside to the midpoint.

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