Analyse produit facultative
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Natera, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $59.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 2.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -192.3M | |
| EPS (ttm) | -$1.37 | |
| Shares out | 144.1M | |
| P/E (forward) | 5000.0x | |
| Volume | 1,258,999 | |
| Beta | 1.50 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $625.5M | $820.2M | $1.08B | $1.70B | $2.31B | +38.6% |
| Gross profit | $307.1M | $364.0M | $492.7M | $1.02B | $1.50B | +48.6% |
| Operating income | $-468.2M | $-541.0M | $-446.2M | $-222.3M | $-309.9M | — |
| Net income | $-471.7M | $-547.8M | $-434.8M | $-190.4M | $-208.2M | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-5.21 | $-5.57 | $-3.78 | $-1.53 | $-1.52 | — |
| EBITDA | $-451.5M | $-507.0M | $-383.3M | $-148.1M | $-220.5M | — |
| R&D | $264.2M | $316.4M | $320.7M | $404.1M | $624.1M | +24.0% |
| SG&A | $511.0M | $588.6M | $618.3M | $841.3M | $1.18B | +23.2% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the base case, revenue expands in line with consensus projections at 26.15% in FY2026 and 19.97% in FY2027, before decelerating toward 11.0% by FY2030 as domestic clinical adoption matures. Operating margins transition from -5.5% in FY2026 to positive 2.0% in FY2027 and normalize toward 16.0% by FY2030 as fixed laboratory overhead levers down. Capex scales down from FY2025 peak levels of $106.19M (3.2x D&A) toward maintenance intensity of 9.38% reinvestment rate in FY2030. Medicare reimbursement remains stable at ~13.6% of revenue. Under an equal-weighted synthesis of EV/revenue ($114.97) and FCFF DCF ($36.90) at a 10.40% WACC, Fair value is established at $75.94.
In the bull case, oncology test penetration and women's health volume accelerate beyond consensus expectations, sustaining strong double-digit annual revenue growth through FY2028. Fixed-cost absorption across high-throughput laboratory facilities drives gross margin expansion toward 70% and enables GAAP operating profitability ahead of expectations by FY2027. Rolling MolDX coverage decisions for pending submissions deliver an estimated $150 to $200 ASP expansion, while international launch in Japan broadens geographic diversification. Capex normalizes rapidly toward maintenance levels, generating substantial positive FCFF.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | $89.6 | $90.4 | $91.2 | $92.1 | $93.1 |
| 9.9% | $86.4 | $87.1 | $87.8 | $88.5 | $89.4 |
| 10.4% | $78.4 | $79.0 | $75.9 | $80.2 | $80.9 |
| 10.9% | $80.8 | $81.3 | $81.9 | $82.4 | $83.0 |
| 11.4% | $78.4 | $78.8 | $79.2 | $79.7 | $80.2 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
La notation portée par l'édition de recherche publiée chaque mois. Une notation compare le cours à la date d'analyse à la juste valeur ; elle n'indique pas si l'appréciation s'est révélée juste.
| Année | janv. | févr. | mars | avr. | mai | juin | juil. | août | sept. | oct. | nov. | déc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
