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PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $8.05, high $14.0, with mid-point at $11.0.
Stock analysis

PATH UiPath Inc. fair value $11–$14

PATH
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-10Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Information Technology
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Cours
$10.79
▲ +0.19 (+1.76%)
Juste valeur
$11
$11–$14
Notation
Conserver
confidence 84/100
Potentiel de hausse
+1.8%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$9.33
buy below · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$5.7B
P/E fwd 12.0
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $11 with high case $14.
  • Implied upside of 1.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$11
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$10.79Price
FV $10.98
High $13.97

PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs embedded deep
    High switching costs embedded deep within enterprise legacy workflows.
  • Incumbent scale and broad integrations
    Incumbent scale and broad integrations in traditional RPA markets.
  • Cycle upside
    Enterprise AI adoption drives massive structural process orchestration needs across sectors.

§2 Cas baissier

A recessionary enterprise software budget freeze coupled with Microsoft bundling forces drastic pricing cuts. Base case growth of 9% plummets to 0%, while fixed R&D and SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs severely destroy GAAP margins.

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

AI Generative Disruption

· Medium

Generative AI agents bypass traditional RPA workflows entirely, collapsing gross margins and pipeline growth.

FV impact
Severe downside toward the FCFF DCF floor of $4.48 per share.
Trigger
12-24 months

Structural Margin Stagnation

· High

Intense competitive pricing pressure from Microsoft prevents operating margins from reaching the 25% terminal assumption.

FV impact
Fair value composite drops aggressively to the $8.05 bear case.
Trigger
24-36 months

Uncontrolled SBC Escalation

· Low

Inability to retain engineering talent forces higher stock-based compensation, permanently impairing free cash flow to equity.

FV impact
Resets terminal valuation multiple structurally below 15x.
Trigger
12-18 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Net revenue retention falling sustainably below the 110% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC remaining stubbornly above 18% of revenue without top-line acceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin degradation below 80% indicating severe pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin trajectory missing the required 25% terminal target path.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Measurable market share loss in the standalone orchestration segment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4TCAC
Période2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires—$1.06B$1.31B$1.43B$1.61B+11.1%
Marge brute—$878.5M$1.11B$1.18B$1.34B+11.1%
Résultat d'exploitation—$-348.3M$-164.7M$-162.6M$56.8M—
Résultat net—$-328.4M$-89.9M$-73.7M$282.3M—
BPA (dilué)$-1.16$-0.60$-0.16$-0.13——
EBITDA—$-329.6M$-142.1M$-145.3M$73.7M—
R&D—$285.8M$332.1M$380.7M$385.2M+7.8%
SG&A—$941.1M$944.8M$964.6M$897.6M-1.2%

Scores de qualité

Piotroski F-score
7 / 9
Composite qualité 0–9
Altman Z-score
3.41
Risque de faillite (>3 sûr)
OCF / Résultat net
1.32×
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Pass
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
2.1%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

PATH — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PATH trades close to fair value. The current price is $10.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $11.0 (range $8.05–$14.0), which implies roughly 1.8% upside to the midpoint.

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