Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

NYSE: RCL · USD

$298

+2.34 (+0.8%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-02

Our latest published analysis: RCL rated Sell

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$165 / share

Potential value

$227 / share

Upside to FV

-38.7%

from $298

Moat

7/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$72.2B
Revenue (ttm)	19.1B
Net income (ttm)	4.6B
EPS (ttm)	$16.9
Shares out	267.5M
P/E (trailing)	17.7x
P/E (forward)	11.4x
Dividend	$6.00 (2.02%)
Volume	2,108,247
Beta	1.82

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 19.1B
Net income (ttm): 4.6B
EPS (ttm): $16.9
P/E (trailing): 17.7x
P/E (forward): 11.4x
Market cap: $72.2B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$1.53B	$8.84B	$13.90B	$16.48B	$17.94B	+85.0%
Gross profit	$-1.21B	$2.22B	$6.13B	$7.83B	$8.40B	—
Operating income	$-3.87B	$-766.0M	$2.88B	$4.11B	$4.91B	—
Net income	$-5.26B	$-2.16B	$1.70B	$2.88B	$4.27B	—
EPS (diluted)	$-20.89	$-8.45	$6.31	$10.94	$15.61	—
EBITDA	$-2.68B	$615.0M	$4.56B	$6.09B	$6.91B	—
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$1.37B	$1.58B	$1.79B	$2.13B	$2.22B	+12.9%

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APTV	Aptiv PLC	9.1B	42.8x	0.4x	7.8%	+5.5%	-49.2%	Acheter

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$165.47

-38.7% from spot

In the base case, Royal Caribbean delivers on its guided 6.6% capacity growth and 1.75% to 2.25% net yield growth in FY2026, driving FY2026 revenue to $19,566M and FY2027 revenue to $20,974M. Operating margins remain steady between 27.5% and 28.2% before stabilizing near 27.8% terminal run-rate. Free cash flow expands as reinvestment rates decline from 55% of NOPAT in FY2026 to 28% by FY2030, funding steady balance sheet deleveraging on $22,635M in total debt.

Revenue growth follows house schedule: 9.1% in FY2026, 7.2% in FY2027, fading to 3.5% by FY2030.
Operating margin normalizes between 27.5% and 28.2%.
Reinvestment rate steps down from 55% to 28% of NOPAT.

Bull20%

Price target

$226.86

-16.0% from spot

In the bull case, premium destination attach rates (CocoCay and Royal Beach Club expansions) and superior booking momentum drive net yield growth above 3.5%, expanding FY2026 revenue growth toward 11.5% and FY2027 revenue above $21,800M. Unit cost control holds net cruise costs excluding fuel flat to down, driving operating margins above 29.5% and diluted EPS beyond $21.50 in FY2027. Accelerated free cash flow generation enables rapid debt paydown toward net debt of under $18,000M, reducing interest expense and prompting multiple expansion from 11.4x forward P/E toward peer hospitality averages.

Net yield growth expands above 3.5% across core itineraries.
Operating margin expands above 29.5% through unit cost discipline.
Accelerated debt paydown reduces net debt below $18,000M from $21,695M.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($165.47). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
9.0%	$177	$180	$183	$186	$189
9.5%	$170	$172	$174	$177	$179
10.0%	$163	$164	$165	$169	$171
10.5%	$156	$158	$160	$161	$163
11.0%	$150	$152	$153	$155	$157

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E11.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E16.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE41.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC15.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All RCL indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

285

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000884887
Company name	Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	V7780T103
Earnings date	2026-10-27
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	108,000
Employees change	2,000
Employees growth	1.89%
Enterprise value	$102.1B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1968
In index	SP500
Industry	Travel Services
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	LR0008862868
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-11
Last earnings date	2026-10-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	1998-08-03
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$79.8B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	Yes
Price	$298.27
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Discretionary
SIC code	4400
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	RCL
U.S. state	Florida
Website	https://www.rclinvestor.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	17.36x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	17.42x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	18.71x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	19.24x
Earnings yield	5.66%
EV/Earnings	22.29x
EV/EBIT	19.19x
EV/EBITDA	14.18x
EV/FCF	67.19x
EV/Sales	5.3x
FCF / EV yield	1.49%
FCF yield	1.91%
Forward EV/Sales	4.9x
Forward P/E	15x
Forward P/S	3.83x
Graham number	129.00971
Graham upside	-56.4%
Industry forward P/E	15.99x
Industry P/E	18.18x
Lynch fair value	$422.29
Lynch upside	42.73%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	57.47x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	11.7x
P/B ratio	6.76x
P/E ratio	17.66x
P/FCF ratio	52.41x
P/OCF ratio	11.47x
P/S ratio	4.14x
PEG ratio	1.09x
Price / tangible book value	7.26x
Price/EBITDA ratio	11.06x
Sector forward P/E	24.43x
Sector P/E	30.53x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	27.64%
EBITDA margin	37.4%
Effective tax rate	1.74%
FCF margin	7.89%
Gross margin	50.25%
Operating margin	27.64%
Pretax margin	24.37%
Profit margin	23.79%
Profit per employee	$42,148
Profitable quarters	14
Profitable years	3
Revenue per employee	$177,176
ROA	7.78%
ROA (5Y)	2.26%
ROCE	15.83%
ROE	41.29%
ROE (5Y)	1.45%
ROIC	15.43%
ROIC (5Y)	4.7%
SBC / revenue	0.7%
Tax / revenue	0.42%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	13.66%
EPS growth (Q)	12.37%
EPS growth (QoQ)	53.57%
EPS growth 10Y	11.57%
EPS growth 3Y	67.89%
EPS growth quarters	1
EPS growth years	5
FCF growth	-25.8%
FCF growth 3Y	-14.79%
Gross profit growth	11.23%
Gross profit growth (Q)	6.63%
Gross profit growth 3Y	18.81%
Net income growth	11.93%
Net income growth (Q)	9.71%
Net income growth (QoQ)	53.19%
Net income growth 3Y	70.42%
Net income growth quarters	1
Net income growth years	5
OCF growth	9.32%
OCF growth (Q)	7.56%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-15.05%
OCF growth 10Y	11.42%
OCF growth 3Y	20.55%
Operating income growth	14.58%
Operating income growth (Q)	10.33%
Operating income growth 3Y	31.57%
Revenue growth	9.74%
Revenue growth (Q)	8.8%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	15.71%
Revenue growth 10Y	8.47%
Revenue growth 3Y	13.25%
Revenue growth 5Y	100.95%
Revenue growth quarters	21
Revenue growth years	4

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-5.4B
Depreciation and amortization	$1.9B
EBIT	$5.3B
EBITDA	$7.2B
EPS	$16.89
FCF per share	$5.65
Financing cash flow	$-1.2B
Free cash flow	$1.5B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.4B
Gross profit	$9.6B
Income taxes	$81M
Investing cash flow	$-5.3B
Net borrowing	$2B
Net cash flow	$419M
Net income	$4.6B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$6.8B
Operating income	$5.3B
Revenue	$19.1B
Stock-based compensation	$133M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	2.25
Book value per share	$43.79
Debt / EBITDA	3.13
Debt / equity	1.94
Debt / FCF	15.34
Goodwill	$808M
Interest coverage	5.2
Long-term assets	$42.3B
Long-term liabilities	$21.5B
Net cash (debt)	$-22.3B
Net cash / market cap	-28.2%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.12
Net debt / equity	1.87
Net debt / FCF	14.78
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$39B
Shareholders' equity	$11.9B
Tangible book value	$10.9B
Tangible book value per share	$40.77
Total assets	$44.8B
Total cash	$851M
Total debt	$23.2B
Total liabilities	$32.9B
WACC	12.02%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.45
Current assets	$2.5B
Current liabilities	$11.4B
Current ratio	0.22
Inventory turnover	33.23
Net working capital	$-7.5B
Quick ratio	0.11
Working capital	$-8.9B
Working capital turnover	-2.07

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	2%
Dividend growth	80.33%
Dividend growth (10Y)	13.11%
Dividend growth (3Y)	139.57%
Dividend growth (5Y)	12.59%
Dividend growth years	2
Dividend payment date	2026-10-08
Dividend payment years	3
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$6.00
Dividend yield	2.02%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-17
FCF payout ratio	97.42%
Last dividend	$1.50
Payout ratio	32.56%
Shareholder yield	4.03%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	336.12%
10Y return CAGR	17.22%
10Y total return	389.81%
150-day SMA	$281.50
15Y price change	872.41%
15Y return CAGR	17.97%
15Y total return	1,092.37%
1D price change	0.79%
1M price change	22.28%
1M total return	22.28%
1W price change	3.12%
1W total return	3.12%
1Y price change	-7.33%
1Y return CAGR	-5.48%
1Y total return	-5.48%
20-day SMA	$282.29
200-day SMA	$286.18
20Y price change	635.15%
20Y return CAGR	11.83%
20Y total return	835.79%
3M price change	-2.71%
3M total return	-2.13%
3Y price change	258.39%
3Y return CAGR	54.75%
3Y total return	270.72%
50-day SMA	$271.20
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$356.39
52-week high date	2026-02-10
52-week low	$222.22
52-week low date	2026-09-23
5Y price change	255.47%
5Y return CAGR	29.75%
5Y total return	267.7%
6M price change	14.64%
6M total return	15.92%
All-time high	$366.50
All-time high date	2025-08-29
All-time low	$5.40
All-time low date	2009-03-03
Average true range (ATR)	$10.74
Average volume	2.2M
Beta (1Y)	0.91
Beta (2Y)	1.46
Beta (5Y)	1.82
Change from 52-week high	-16.31%
Change from 52-week low	34.22%
Change from all-time high	-19.02%
Change from all-time low	5,395.93%
Change from open	0.9%
Day's gap	-0.11%
Dollar volume	$628.8M
High price	$299.12
Low price	$292.50
Monthly RSI	56.21
Open price	$295.60
Position in 52-week range	87.16%
Premarket change	0.03%
Premarket close	$295.92
Premarket price	$296.00
Premarket volume	6K
Previous close	$295.92
Price vs 150-day SMA	5.43%
Price vs 20-day SMA	5.13%
Price vs 200-day SMA	3.7%
Price vs 50-day SMA	9.43%
Relative volume	0.97
RSI	63.61
Sharpe ratio	0.04
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.17
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.69
Sortino ratio	0.19
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.99
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.17
Volume	2.1M
Weekly RSI	54.69
YTD price change	6.4%
YTD total return	8.16%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	242M
Float percentage	90.47%
Shares change (QoQ)	0%
Shares change (YoY)	-2%
Shares held by insiders	0.38%
Shares held by institutions	87.16%
Shares outstanding	267.5M
Short % of float	4.69%
Short % of shares	4.24%
Short ratio	3.6 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	129

Deeper analysis on RCL

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this RCL report

What is the latest published RCL stock rating?

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full RCL analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02, lives at /stocks/RCL/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for RCL?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-02 gives RCL a fair value of USD 165 and a potential value of USD 227. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the RCL page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-02). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellRCL · Fair value $165-38.7%

Read full analysis →

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

Our latest published analysis: RCL rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · RCL

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All RCL indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on RCL

Frequently asked questions

Historique des notations

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	1.5
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	1.5
Competitive Moat	7.0
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	6.5