UNP trades against a final fair-value range of $183.57-$275.43, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $184, high $275, with mid-point at $229.
Stock analysis
Union Pacific CorporationUNP Union Pacific Corporation fair value $229–$275
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§1 Résumé
Composite fair value $229 with high case $275.
Implied downside of 13.3% to fair value.
Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$229
Margin of safety
-15.4%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$264.65Price
FV $229.41
High $275.43
UNP trades against a final fair-value range of $183.57-$275.43, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Duopoly market structure with BNSF
Duopoly market structure with BNSF in the Western U.S.
Immense barriers to entry due
Immense barriers to entry due to high capital requirements
Bull thesis
Consensus is overly optimistic, valuing UNP at $291 based on extrapolation of peak multiples.
Based on our latest analysis, UNP screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $265 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $229 (range $184–$275), which implies roughly 13.3% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for UNP is $184–$275, with a midpoint of $229. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Union Pacific Corporation's archetype.
Our current rating for UNP is Reduce with a confidence score of 88/100. UNP is rated Reduce at $264.65 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $229.41, implying -13.32% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Union Pacific Corporation are: Severe Economic Recession; Adverse Regulatory Action; Catastrophic Service Meltdown. The single biggest risk is The $229 base case fair value suggests the stock has pulled forward several years of execution.
Our current rating for UNP is Reduce, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($184–$275) versus the current price of $265.
Union Pacific Corporation is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for UNP.
