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ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $114, high $227, with mid-point at $165.
Stock analysis

ZS Zscaler Inc. fair value $165–$227

ZS
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analysé: 2026-05-09Prochaine mise à jour: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Cours
$152.13
▲ +12.60 (+8.28%)
Juste valeur
$165
$165–$227
Notation
Conserver
confidence 76/100
Potentiel de hausse
+8.3%
upside to fair value
Marge de sécurité
$140.02
buy below · 15%
Capitalisation boursière
$24.5B
P/E fwd 33.2
Repli en anglaisFR
Affichage de la source anglaise pendant la traduction
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§1 Résumé

  • Composite fair value $165 with high case $227.
  • Implied upside of 8.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$165
Margin of safety
+7.6%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.13Price
FV $164.73
High $226.95

ZS trades against a final fair-value range of $113.67-$226.95, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating enterprise cloud migrations, perimeterless networks, and remote work permanence drive unabated best-of-breed Zero Trust adoption.

§2 Cas baissier

A prolonged macroeconomic downturn compressing enterprise IT budgets would severely test the premium valuation. If renewals stall and growth drops, the EV/Revenue multiple could collapse, exposing the lack of GAAP earnings support and heavy SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. dilutionDilutionThe increase in share count over time, typically driven by SBC vesting, equity issuance, or M&A in stock. Reduces existing shareholders' per-share claim on cash flows..

Comment cette thèse peut échouer

Platform Bundling Accelerates

· Medium

Mega-cap competitors successfully bundle Zero Trust solutions, driving severe pricing compression and halting new customer acquisition.

FV impact
Downside to $113.67
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Expansion Failure

· High

Inability to scale SG&A and curb stock-based compensation permanently impairs GAAP operating margins, capping them below 20%.

FV impact
Downside to $125.00
Trigger
24-36 months

Growth Decelerates Abruptly

· Low

Macroeconomic headwinds and market saturation cause top-line growth to abruptly decelerate below 15% earlier than modeled.

FV impact
Downside to $110.00
Trigger
6-12 months
Signaux d'alerte précoce à surveiller
MétriqueActuelSeuil de déclenchement
Calculated billings growth decelerating significantly faster than revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dollar-based net retention rate dropping below 115%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue increasing year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sales and marketing efficiency ratios deteriorating.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increasing churn among large enterprise customers to bundled competitors.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historique financier

Compte de résultat — six derniers exercices
PosteT−0T−1T−2T−3TCAC
Période2022-07-312023-07-312024-07-312025-07-31Trend
Chiffre d'affaires$1.09B$1.62B$2.17B$2.67B+34.8%
Marge brute$848.7M$1.25B$1.69B$2.05B+34.3%
Résultat d'exploitation$-327.4M$-234.6M$-121.5M$-127.1M—
Résultat net$-390.3M$-202.3M$-57.7M$-41.5M—
BPA (dilué)$-2.77$-1.40$-0.39$-0.27—
EBITDA$-277.6M$-109.2M$64.8M$108.1M—
R&D$289.1M$350.8M$499.8M$672.5M+32.5%
SG&A$887.0M$1.14B$1.31B$1.51B+19.4%

Scores de qualité

OCF / Résultat net
-23.45
>1 indique une qualité élevée des résultats
Seuil de qualité comptable
Fail
Seuil ajusté au secteur
ROIC
-0.0%
Rendement du capital investi
§3

Numbers analysis

Allocation du capital

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abonnés individuels — à partir de §411 sections supplémentaires

Lire l'analyse complète — 11 sections supplémentaires.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

ZS — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ZS looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $165 (range $114–$227), which implies roughly 8.3% upside to the midpoint.

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