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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is an entrenched, high-quality bottler generating roughly $2 billion in annual free cash flow. While it operates with structurally lower margins than franchisors like KO, its local monopoly on distribution and vast scale provide a wide economic moat. It is a predictable compounder actively returning capital through dividends and buybacks. Fair value range: low $91.3, high $140, with mid-point at $116.
Stock analysis

CCEP fair value $91–$140

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-20अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$91.86
▲ +23.88 (+26.00%)
उचित मूल्य
$116
$91–$140
रेटिंग
मज़बूत ख़रीद
confidence 88/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+26.0%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$98.38
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$40.7B
P/E fwd 16.2
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Defensive consumer staples compounder producing $2B+ in annual free cash flow.
  • Trading at a steep discount to structural moat-fade intrinsic value of $115.74.
  • Market implicitly prices zero-to-negative volume growth, ignoring durable ROIC.
  • Stable 13.3% operating margins prove successful pass-through of severe cost inflation.
Fair value
$116
Margin of safety
+20.6%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.86Price
Low $91.30
Mid $115.74
High $140.15

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is an entrenched, high-quality bottler generating roughly $2 billion in annual free cash flow. While it operates with structurally lower margins than franchisors like KO, its local monopoly on distribution and vast scale provide a wide economic moat. It is a predictable compounder actively returning capital through dividends and buybacks.

  • Exclusive territorial distribution agreements for
    Exclusive territorial distribution agreements for top global beverage brands.
  • Massive local distribution density creating
    Massive local distribution density creating insurmountable scale advantages.
  • Cycle upside
    Normalized supply chains and highly stable consumer staples demand driving margin expansion.

§2 बेयर केस

Consumer elasticity reaches a tipping point amid sticky wage and packaging inflation, compressing operating margins back toward 10% and stunting free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. generation.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Elasticity Breakpoint

· Medium

Consumers reject sustained price hikes, driving permanent volume declines and private label substitution.

FV impact
Downside to $91.30
Trigger
12-24 Months

Franchisor Margin Extraction

· Low

Primary franchisor aggressively hikes concentrate pricing, forcing the bottler to absorb the margin compression.

FV impact
Sub-$80s Valuation
Trigger
24-36 Months

Capital Intensity Spike

· Low

Maintenance capex-to-D&A structurally rises above 1.2x, permanently impairing free cash flow conversion.

FV impact
15% Intrinsic Value Reduction
Trigger
36+ Months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Operating margins compress below 12.0% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex-to-D&A structurally rises above 1.2x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Volume declines exceed low-single digits despite flat macro environment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Adverse shifts or renegotiations in franchisor territorial agreements.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion drops permanently below historical $2B baseline.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$17.32B$18.30B$20.44B$20.90B+6.5%
सकल लाभ$6.22B$6.72B$7.21B$7.44B+6.1%
परिचालन आय$2.23B$2.33B$2.54B$2.79B+7.7%
शुद्ध आय$1.51B$1.67B$1.42B$1.94B+8.8%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$3.29$3.63$3.08$4.26+9.0%
EBITDA$2.94B$3.16B$3.11B$3.77B+8.7%
R&D—————
SG&A$1.99B$2.20B$2.35B$2.35B+5.8%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
7 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
2.5
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-2.61
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.52×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
12.1%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

CCEP — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CCEP looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $91.9 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $116 (range $91.3–$140), which implies roughly 26.0% upside to the midpoint.

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