Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $181, high $341, with mid-point at $261.
Stock analysis

CME fair value $181–$341

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-20अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
मूल्य
$302.37
▼ -41.21 (-13.63%)
उचित मूल्य
$261
$181–$341
रेटिंग
घटाएँ
confidence 88/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-13.6%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$221.99
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$109.6B
P/E fwd 23.5
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $261 with high case $341.
  • Implied downside of 13.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$261
Margin of safety
-15.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$302.37Price
Low $181.11
Mid $261.16
High $341.31

CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Near-monopoly network effects in interest
    Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
  • Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as
    Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
  • Cycle upside
    High macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging.

§2 बेयर केस

A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatilityVolatilityVolatility is a price, risk, or intrinsic-value metric used to compare market price with estimated value or historical return behavior. It should be read as one input in a broader valuation range., dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

ZIRP Return

20%· Medium

A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.

FV impact
Drives fair value to $181.11, a 40% downside from current prices.

Regulatory Fee Capping

10%· Low

Aggressive federal intervention caps market data and clearing fees, structurally limiting high-margin revenue streams.

FV impact
Reduces intrinsic value by ~15% via lower operating margins.

DeFi Disruption

5%· Low

Decentralized ledgers bypass traditional clearinghouses, destroying CME's core wide-moat monopolistic advantage over the long term.

FV impact
Catastrophic multiple compression to mid-teens P/E.
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Operating margin sustained contraction below 60%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward P/E multiple compressing to 15-18x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in interest rate derivative open interest.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions enforcing strict caps on market data pricing.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share in core agricultural or energy futures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$4.69B$5.02B$5.58B$6.13B$6.52B+8.6%
सकल लाभ$3.85B$4.27B$4.75B$5.28B$5.61B+9.9%
परिचालन आय$2.65B$3.02B$3.44B$3.93B$4.23B+12.4%
शुद्ध आय$2.64B$2.69B$3.23B$3.53B$4.07B+11.5%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$7.29$7.40$8.86$9.67$11.16+11.2%
EBITDA$3.93B$4.02B$4.67B$5.04B$5.83B+10.4%
R&D——————
SG&A$151.7M$137.4M$144.4M$132.7M$150.5M-0.2%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
6 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
0.59
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-2.56
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.05×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
13.5%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

हर कवर किए गए टिकर के लिए पूर्ण रिपोर्ट
रेटिंग संग्रह के 24 महीने
वॉचलिस्ट ब्रीफ़िंग और रेटिंग-परिवर्तन अलर्ट
किसी भी भाषा में PDF + DOCX निर्यात
मुफ़्त ट्रायल शुरू करें
कभी भी रद्द करें।
FAQ

CME — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CME screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $302 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $261 (range $181–$341), which implies roughly 13.6% downside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of CME also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder