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CMI trades against a final fair-value range of $423.89-$651.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $424, high $652, with mid-point at $537.
Stock analysis

CMI fair value $424–$652

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-13अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$709.57
▼ -172.11 (-24.26%)
उचित मूल्य
$537
$424–$652
रेटिंग
घटाएँ
confidence 81/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-24.3%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$456.84
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$97.9B
P/E fwd 21.4
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $537 with high case $652.
  • Implied downside of 24.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 81/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$537
Margin of safety
-32.0%
Confidence
81/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$709.57Price
Low $423.89
Mid $537.46
High $651.97

CMI trades against a final fair-value range of $423.89-$651.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cycle upside
    Near-term earnings momentum driven by operating leverage, robust legacy machinery replacement demand, and hybrid platforms bridging the technological gap safely.

§2 बेयर केस

A faster-than-expected global regulatory mandate for fully electric heavy-duty vehicles renders legacy engine intellectual property obsolete, stranding assets and severely depressing returns on invested capital before Accelera achieves scale.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Accelerated ICE Obsolescence

· High

Global emission regulations tighten faster than expected, stranding highly profitable legacy diesel assets and crashing near-term FCF.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $423.89 bear-case floor.
Trigger
24-36 months

Accelera Margin Failure

· Medium

The Accelera clean energy segment fails to reach structural profitability despite heavy capital expenditures, permanently diluting corporate ROIC.

FV impact
Reduces long-term multiple to <15x, wiping out growth premium.
Trigger
36-60 months

Cyclical Freight Recession

· Medium

A deep downturn in global freight and construction markets coincides with peak EV transition spending, squeezing liquidity and margins simultaneously.

FV impact
Compresses near-term EPS estimates by >20%.
Trigger
12-24 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Operating margins decline below 11.0% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Accelera segment revenue growth fails to outpace legacy ICE decay over a 12-month trailing period.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capital expenditures structurally exceed historical norms as a percentage of revenue without corresponding ROIC stabilization.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Peer median P/E compresses to <20x, signaling broader industrial multiple contraction.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion drops materially due to elevated maintenance and transition capex.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व—$28.07B$34.07B$34.10B$33.67B+4.6%
सकल लाभ—$6.72B$8.25B$8.44B$8.52B+6.1%
परिचालन आय—$2.58B$1.28B$3.37B$3.87B+10.6%
शुद्ध आय—$2.15B$735.0M$3.95B$2.84B+7.2%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$14.61$15.12$5.15$28.37$20.50+8.8%
EBITDA—$3.80B$3.03B$6.34B$5.40B+9.2%
R&D—$1.28B$1.50B$1.46B$1.40B+2.2%
SG&A—$2.69B$3.33B$3.28B$3.13B+3.8%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.27×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
16.6%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

CMI intrinsic value questions

  1. CMI (CMI)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

CMI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CMI looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $710 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $537 (range $424–$652), which implies roughly 24.3% downside to the midpoint.

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