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Altria represents a pure-play cash cow in structural decline, heavily dependent on aggressive pricing to mask secular volume erosion while funding an outsized dividend payout. Fair value range: low $56.3, high $83.5, with mid-point at $69.3.
Stock analysis

MO MO fair value $56–$84

MO
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Turnaround
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मूल्य
$68.12
▲ +1.14 (+1.67%)
उचित मूल्य
$69
$56–$84
रेटिंग
होल्ड
confidence 88/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+1.7%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$58.87
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$113.8B
P/E fwd 11.6
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Valuation sits precisely at our fair value mid-point of $69.26.
  • Cash generation remains elite, easily funding the dividend.
  • Long-term viability depends entirely on mitigating volume decay.
Fair value
$69
Margin of safety
+1.6%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$68.12Price
Low $56.34
Mid $69.26
High $83.53

Altria represents a pure-play cash cow in structural decline, heavily dependent on aggressive pricing to mask secular volume erosion while funding an outsized dividend payout.

  • Extreme pricing power in the
    Extreme pricing power in the combustible segment allows margin expansion despite volume declines.
  • Intense regulatory barriers to entry
    Intense regulatory barriers to entry prevent new entrants in the legacy tobacco market.
  • Cycle upside
    Consumers accept continuous price hikes; illicit market enforcement tightens; smooth transition to smoke-free products.

§2 बेयर केस

A rapid acceleration in smoking volume declines coupled with draconian FDA intervention could compress revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. below the break-even threshold for current dividend levels.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

FDA Menthol Ban Implementation

· Medium

The FDA finalizes and enforces a strict ban on menthol cigarettes, materially impacting Altria's volume and revenue with limited transition to smoke-free alternatives.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 Years

Mandated Nicotine Reduction

· Low

Federal mandate to reduce nicotine in combustible cigarettes to minimally addictive levels, effectively destroying the core product's value proposition.

FV impact
-50%
Trigger
3-5 Years

Smoke-Free Portfolio Failure

· Medium

NJOY and on! fail to gain meaningful market share against entrenched competitors like ZYN, leaving the company completely reliant on a dying combustible market.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-4 Years
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Combustible volume declines exceeding 8% annually.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression indicating exhausted pricing elasticity.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stagnant or declining market share in NJOY and on! segments.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow dropping below the required dividend payout threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory announcements advancing the timeline for menthol or nicotine bans.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$21.11B$20.69B$20.50B$20.44B$20.14B-1.2%
सकल लाभ$13.99B$14.25B$14.28B$14.37B$14.54B+1.0%
परिचालन आय$11.56B$11.92B$11.55B$11.63B$12.04B+1.0%
शुद्ध आय$2.48B$5.76B$8.13B$11.26B$6.95B+29.4%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)—$3.19$4.57$6.54$4.12+6.6%
EBITDA$5.26B$8.74B$12.35B$15.07B$10.83B+19.8%
R&D——————
SG&A$2.43B$2.33B$2.74B$2.74B$2.51B+0.8%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
6 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
4.65
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-2.36
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.34×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
37.6%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

MO — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MO trades close to fair value. The current price is $68.1 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $69.3 (range $56.3–$83.5), which implies roughly 1.7% upside to the midpoint.

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