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MRVL trades against a final fair-value range of $70.16-$160.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $70.2, high $161, with mid-point at $114.
Stock analysis

MRVL fair value $70–$161

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-09अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$170.13
▼ -55.97 (-32.90%)
उचित मूल्य
$114
$70–$161
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 73/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-32.9%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$97.04
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$148.8B
P/E fwd 31.3
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $114 with high case $161.
  • Implied downside of 32.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 73/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$114
Margin of safety
-49.0%
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$170.13Price
Low $70.16
Mid $114.16
High $160.84

MRVL trades against a final fair-value range of $70.16-$160.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Cycle upside
    Generative AI infrastructure buildout driving a massive upgrade cycle to 800G and 1.6T networking components.

§2 बेयर केस

A sharp cooling in AI infrastructure capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). combined with prolonged weakness in legacy enterprise and carrier networking. This would compress the currently elevated 31x forward PE multiple to historical mid-cycle averages, exposing the downside risk to trailing earnings.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

AI Network Commoditization

· Low

Hyperscalers successfully insource networking silicon or shift entirely to unified Nvidia solutions, displacing Marvell's custom ASIC and DSP segments.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
3-5 years

Broadcom Price War

· Medium

Broadcom aggressively discounts networking switches and custom silicon to maintain attach rates, compressing Marvell's operating margins permanently below 20%.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
1-3 years

Hyperscaler Capex Winter

· Medium

A macro-driven pause in data center buildouts abruptly halts year-over-year revenue growth, crashing the high terminal multiple expectations currently priced in.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
1-2 years
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Sequential deceleration in Custom Compute segment revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 50% signaling pricing power loss.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Book-to-bill ratio dipping below 1.0 in data center end-markets.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex guidance cuts for the upcoming fiscal year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share in the coherent DSP and optical transceiver markets.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
राजस्व$4.46B$5.92B$5.51B$5.77B$8.19B+16.4%
सकल लाभ$2.06B$2.99B$2.29B$2.38B$4.18B+19.3%
परिचालन आय$-315.3M$359.6M$-436.6M$-366.4M$1.34B—
शुद्ध आय$-421.0M$-163.5M$-933.4M$-885.0M$2.67B—
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$-0.53$-0.19$-1.08$-1.02$3.07—
EBITDA$901.1M$1.65B$850.7M$651.6M$4.54B+49.8%
R&D$1.42B$1.78B$1.90B$1.95B$2.08B+9.9%
SG&A$955.3M$843.6M$834.0M$798.2M$767.1M-5.3%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
0.66×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
13.4%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

MRVL intrinsic value questions

  1. MRVL (MRVL)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

MRVL — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MRVL looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $170 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $114 (range $70.2–$161), which implies roughly 32.9% downside to the midpoint.

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