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NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $52.9, high $87.7, with mid-point at $70.2.
Stock analysis

NDAQ fair value $53–$88

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-20अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$91.98
▼ -21.83 (-23.73%)
उचित मूल्य
$70
$53–$88
रेटिंग
घटाएँ
confidence 82/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-23.7%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$59.63
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$52.0B
P/E fwd 20.8
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $88.
  • Implied downside of 23.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
-31.1%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$91.98Price
Low $52.90
Mid $70.15
High $87.67

NDAQ trades against a final fair-value range of $52.90-$87.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network effects in core exchange
    Network effects in core exchange listings
  • High switching costs in data
    High switching costs in data and analytics software
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating IPO activity and strong demand for Anti-Financial Crime and index products drive structural growth outperformance and margin expansion.

§2 बेयर केस

A prolonged capital markets weakness stifles IPOs and volume, while competition in data and technology products pressures pricing power. The market abruptly reprices the expected normalized multiple.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Severe IPO Drought

· Medium

A multi-year drought in capital markets activity suppresses high-margin listings and trading revenue far beyond the anticipated near-term contraction.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-24 months

Data Pricing Regulation

· Low

Strict regulatory intervention caps the pricing of proprietary market data feeds, structurally impairing a highly recurring revenue stream.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Listing Share Erosion

· Low

Aggressive competition from rival exchanges structurally erodes Nasdaq's core listing market share, weakening its overarching network effects.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
36+ months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Sustained operating margin falling below 45% post-portfolio reshaping.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Failure to achieve immediate +8.4% Year 2 revenue rebound.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of major corporate listings to rival exchanges.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Decline in recurring revenue growth rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deterioration in OCF to Net Income conversion below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व—$6.23B$6.06B$7.40B$8.26B+7.3%
सकल लाभ—$2.34B$2.55B$2.99B$3.49B+10.5%
परिचालन आय—$1.66B$1.81B$1.95B$2.43B+10.0%
शुद्ध आय—$1.13B$1.06B$1.12B$1.79B+12.3%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$2.35$2.26$2.08$1.93$3.09+7.1%
EBITDA—$1.85B$2.00B$2.46B$3.13B+14.0%
R&D——————
SG&A—$420.0M$417.0M$427.0M$424.0M+0.2%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.26×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
9.1%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

NDAQ cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for NDAQ (NDAQ) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

NDAQ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NDAQ looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $92.0 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.2 (range $52.9–$87.7), which implies roughly 23.7% downside to the midpoint.

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