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NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $134, high $242, with mid-point at $181.
Stock analysis

NEM NEM fair value $134–$242

NEM
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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मूल्य
$116.51
▲ +64.69 (+55.52%)
उचित मूल्य
$181
$134–$242
रेटिंग
मज़बूत ख़रीद
confidence 88/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+55.5%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$154.02
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$124.4B
P/E fwd 10.3
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $181 with high case $242.
  • Implied upside of 55.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$181
Margin of safety
+35.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$116.51Price
Low $134.25
Mid $181.2
High $241.74

NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale advantages in tier-one gold
    Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
  • Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset
    Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
  • Cycle upside
    Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.

§2 बेयर केस

A rapid normalization of gold prices back to historical averages combined with sticky operational costs will severely compress margins. Free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. could turn negative if capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). remain elevated to maintain production profiles amid declining ore grades.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Gold Price Collapse

· Medium

Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.

FV impact
-30% to -40%
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Cost Inflation

· Low

Labor strikes and energy price spikes drive all-in sustaining costs above realized gold prices.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
6-12 months

Geopolitical Expropriation

· Low

Key international assets face nationalization or prohibitive royalty increases, stripping significant production volume.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Unpredictable
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Sequential quarterly declines in realized gold prices.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
AISC rising faster than baseline inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Downward revisions to annual production guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected increases in sustaining capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deteriorating political stability in key operating regions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$11.92B$11.81B$18.68B$22.67B+23.9%
सकल लाभ$3.26B$3.01B$7.14B$12.06B+54.6%
परिचालन आय$1.61B$708.0M$5.91B$11.02B+90.1%
शुद्ध आय$-429.0M$-2.49B$3.35B$7.09B—
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$-0.54$-2.94$2.92$6.39—
EBITDA$2.36B$320.0M$7.53B$14.09B+81.4%
R&D$229.0M$200.0M$197.0M$166.0M-10.2%
SG&A$276.0M$299.0M$442.0M$382.0M+11.4%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
9 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
4.54
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-2.71
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.46×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
23.2%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

NEM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NEM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $117 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $181 (range $134–$242), which implies roughly 55.5% upside to the midpoint.

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