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NVDA trades against a final fair-value range of $189.63-$384.85, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $190, high $385, with mid-point at $282.
Stock analysis

NVDA NVDA fair value $190–$385

NVDA
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-12अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-12Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Hyper-growth
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मूल्य
$216.73
▲ +64.99 (+29.99%)
उचित मूल्य
$282
$190–$385
रेटिंग
मज़बूत ख़रीद
confidence 87/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+30.0%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$239.46
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$5.27T
P/E fwd 19.2
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $282 with high case $385.
  • Implied upside of 30.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9.5/10 · confidence 87/100 · Hyper-growth.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$282
Margin of safety
+23.1%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$216.73Price
Low $189.63
Mid $281.72
High $384.85

NVDA trades against a final fair-value range of $189.63-$384.85, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • CUDA ecosystem creates immense developer
    CUDA ecosystem creates immense developer lock-in.
  • Unmatched accelerated computing hardware performance
    Unmatched accelerated computing hardware performance and networking interconnects.
  • Bull thesis
    Anchoring on FCFF provides a necessary safety margin against extreme accrual risks flagged by the Beneish M-Score.

§2 बेयर केस

A stress test applying historical semiconductor cyclicality and a reversion to sector-median margins (35%) would devastate the valuation. While the FCFFFree cash flow to firmCash flow available to all capital providers (debt and equity) before financing costs. Discounted at WACC to derive enterprise value. anchor partially insulates against accrual risks, prolonged $9.5B+ annual capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). without matching revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. drives the target toward the $139.80 discounted earnings floor.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Hyperscaler Capex Cliff

· Medium

Major cloud providers abruptly halt AI infrastructure build-outs as ROI on AI deployments fails to materialize, leading to a severe revenue contraction.

FV impact
Severe (Target approaches $189.63 low)
Trigger
12-18 months

ASIC Substitution Surge

· Low

Custom silicon heavily displaces NVIDIA GPUs in hyperscaler workloads, breaking the CUDA monopoly and forcing severe margin compression.

FV impact
High (Margin regression below 50%)
Trigger
24-36 months

Export Control Escalation

· Medium

Geopolitical tensions result in total bans on advanced chip sales to critical international markets, permanently cutting off a major revenue segment.

FV impact
Moderate to High
Trigger
6-12 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Consecutive quarters of declining operating margins below 60%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex guidance revised downward during earnings calls.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inventory days outstanding increasing significantly above historical norms.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deterioration in OCF to Net Income ratio (currently 0.856).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Further degradation of Beneish M-Score indicating elevated accruals.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
राजस्व$26.97B$60.92B$130.50B$215.94B+100.0%
सकल लाभ$15.36B$44.30B$97.86B$153.46B+115.4%
परिचालन आय$5.58B$32.97B$81.45B$130.39B+185.9%
शुद्ध आय$4.37B$29.76B$72.88B$120.07B+201.8%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$0.17$1.19$2.94$4.90+204.2%
EBITDA$5.99B$35.58B$86.14B$144.55B+189.0%
R&D$7.34B$8.68B$12.91B$18.50B+36.1%
SG&A$2.44B$2.65B$3.49B$4.58B+23.3%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
4 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
57.3
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-1.13
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
0.86×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
66.5%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

NVDA — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NVDA looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $217 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $282 (range $190–$385), which implies roughly 30.0% upside to the midpoint.

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