Is QUALCOMM Incorporated overvalued?

In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-09, QCOM looks meaningfully overvalued. The price recorded at analysis is USD 174 versus our fair value of USD 120; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of USD 205. That implies roughly 30.8% downside to fair value at that date.

What is QCOM's fair value?

Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-09, gives QCOM a fair value of USD 120 and a potential value of USD 205. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for QUALCOMM Incorporated's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.

Should I buy QCOM now?

Our latest published rating for QCOM, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Sell. QUALCOMM Incorporated looks meaningfully overvalued at the analysis-date price of USD 174 versus fair value of USD 120; potential value is USD 205. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.

What are the biggest risks for QCOM?

The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-09 documents QUALCOMM Incorporated's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.

What is QCOM's rating?

Our latest published rating for QCOM, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Sell, with a published moat assessment of 1/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of USD 120, the potential value of USD 205, and the price recorded at analysis (USD 174).

What archetype is QCOM?

In the latest published report analyzed 2026-09-09, QUALCOMM Incorporated is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for QCOM.

QCOM stock analysis

QCOM stock analysis | StockMarketAgent.AI

§3 प्रतिस्पर्धी मोटEN

None

No structural moat is established. Strong cash generation is an outcome, not proof of switching costs, software lock-in, distribution power, installed-base advantage, or scale.

आर्थिक लाभ

FY2025 free cash flow was $12.82 billion, but cash generation alone does not establish a durable competitive advantage.⁴

1/ 10

None

मोट को ज्ञात खतरे
ख़तरा	गंभीरता	समयरेखा	शमन
Peer profitability and valuation benchmarks vary widely, limiting any claim that QUALCOMM deserves a lasting premium.	high	This matters through the medium-term recovery and the valuation investors assign to future earnings.	The peer set bounds expectations, but it does not prove product substitution or company-specific design-share loss.
Three customers represented 21%, 20%, and 13% of FY2025 revenue, increasing exposure to customer-specific decisions.	high	The exposure is relevant while each disclosed customer remains above the reporting threshold.	FY2025 free cash flow provides financial absorption, but it does not remove customer dependence.⁴

§5 संवेदनशीलता

छूट दर

टर्मिनल वृद्धि

	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.3%	$136.51	$140.98	$146.20	$152.38	$159.80
9.3%	$125.24	$128.48	$132.17	$136.43	$141.41
10.3%	$116.31	$118.73	$120.42	$124.54	$128.06
11.3%	$109.02	$110.88	$112.95	$115.26	$117.86
12.3%	$102.92	$104.39	$106.01	$107.79	$109.77

पंक्तियाँ: छूट दर (आय के लिए Ke; नकदी प्रवाह के लिए WACC)। स्तंभ: टर्मिनल वृद्धि।

अवधि में बदलाव (वर्ष)

None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.

Sensitivity reference

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($120.42). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

FCF क्लिफ़

Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $12.5B after modeled capex of $1.2B, with terminal value at 48.4% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.

§8 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
Period	2021-09-26	2022-09-25	2023-09-24	2024-09-29	2025-09-28	Trend
Revenue	$33.57B	$44.20B	$35.82B	$38.96B	$44.28B	+7.2%
Gross profit	$19.30B	$25.57B	$19.95B	$21.90B	$24.55B	+6.2%
Operating income	$9.79B	$15.86B	$7.79B	$10.07B	$12.36B	+6.0%
Net income	$9.04B	$12.94B	$7.23B	$10.14B	$5.54B	-11.5%
EPS (diluted)	$7.87	$11.37	$6.42	$8.97	$5.01	-10.7%
EBITDA	$12.42B	$17.25B	$9.95B	$12.74B	$14.93B	+4.7%
R&D	$7.18B	$8.19B	$8.82B	$8.89B	$9.04B	+5.9%
SG&A	$2.34B	$2.57B	$2.48B	$2.76B	$3.11B	+7.4%

स्वीकृत वार्षिक पूर्वानुमान
मेट्रिक	FY2025	FY2026	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030	FY2031	FY2032

नकद प्रवाह

FY2025 operating cash flow exceeded net income and supported $12.82 billion of free cash flow. Durability, not the reported level alone, determines whether this support persists.^4,5

पूँजी आवंटन

The lower share count can support per-share value, but it does not prove future reductions. Capital-return capacity should be re-underwritten if annual free cash flow falls below $8 billion.

ROIC

FY2025 operating income was $12.36 billion and free cash flow was $12.82 billion. These outcomes do not establish the direction of return on invested capital.

WACC was 10.3079% as of 2026-09-09; the relationship to return on invested capital remains unknown.

Cash generation is the strongest reported support.

FY2025 operating cash flow was $14.01 billion and free cash flow was $12.82 billion.

Sustained cash generation can fund shareholder returns without relying only on reported earnings.

The share count provides conditional per-share support.

नवीनतम राजस्व$44.3 अ॰राजस्व CAGR +7.3%

परिचालन मार्जिन27.9%10 वित्तीय अवधियाँ

नवीनतम मुक्त नकदी प्रवाह$12.8 अ॰FY2025

शुद्ध ऋण$4.7 अ॰FY2025

आय विवरण का विश्लेषणव्यवसाय का पैमाना रिपोर्ट किए गए लाभ में कैसे बदलता है।28 जून 2026

StockMarketAgent.AI

वित्तीय इतिहास डेटा
राजस्व	$9,94,70,00,000
राजस्व की लागत	$4,67,00,00,000
सकल लाभ	$5,27,70,00,000
परिचालन व्यय	$3,65,10,00,000
परिचालन आय	$1,62,60,00,000
गैर-परिचालन मदें और कर	$37,60,00,000
शुद्ध आय	$2,00,20,00,000

बैलेंस शीट का सारांशचुनी गई अवधि में रिपोर्ट की गई परिसंपत्तियाँ कैसे रखी और वित्तपोषित की गई हैं।

StockMarketAgent.AI

बैलेंस शीट विभाजन डेटा
कुल परिसंपत्तियाँ	$50,14,30,00,000
नकद	$5,52,00,00,000
चालू परिसंपत्तियाँ	$25,75,40,00,000
कुल देनदारियाँ	$28,93,70,00,000
चालू देनदारियाँ	$9,14,40,00,000
शेयरधारकों की इक्विटी	$21,20,60,00,000

नकदी प्रवाह ब्रिजFY2024 में परिचालन नकदी प्रवाह से मुक्त नकदी प्रवाह कैसे बना।

StockMarketAgent.AI

परिचालन नकदी मिलान

शुद्ध आय$10.1 अ॰मूल्यह्रास और परिशोधन+$1.7 अ॰शेयर-आधारित पारिश्रमिक+$2.6 अ॰अन्य परिचालन समायोजन−$2.3 अ॰परिचालन नकद प्रवाह$12.2 अ॰

आरंभिक से अंतिम नकदी मिलान

आरंभिक नकदी$8.5 अ॰परिचालन नकद प्रवाह+$12.2 अ॰निवेश नकदी प्रवाह−$3.6 अ॰वित्तपोषण नकदी प्रवाह−$9.3 अ॰विनिमय दर प्रभाव+$1.2 क॰अंतिम नकदी$7.8 अ॰

$12.2 अ॰ − $1 अ॰मुक्त नकद प्रवाह $11.2 अ॰

नकदी प्रवाह ब्रिज डेटा
शुद्ध आय	$10,14,20,00,000
परिचालन नकदी प्रवाह	$14,49,60,00,000
मूल्यह्रास और परिशोधन	$1,70,60,00,000
शेयर-आधारित पारिश्रमिक	$2,64,80,00,000
परिचालन नकद प्रवाह	$12,20,20,00,000
परिचालन नकदी बहिर्वाह	$2,29,40,00,000
उपलब्ध नकदी	$20,74,10,00,000
आरंभिक नकदी	$8,52,70,00,000
विनिमय दर प्रभाव	$1,20,00,000
निवेश नकदी बहिर्वाह	$3,62,30,00,000
Capex	$1,04,10,00,000
अन्य निवेश गतिविधियाँ	$2,58,20,00,000
वित्तपोषण नकदी बहिर्वाह	$9,26,90,00,000
शेयर पुनर्खरीद	$4,12,10,00,000
भुगतान किए गए लाभांश	$3,68,70,00,000
शुद्ध ऋण चुकौती	$91,40,00,000
अन्य वित्तपोषण गतिविधियाँ	$54,70,00,000
अंतिम नकदी	$7,84,90,00,000
निवेश नकदी प्रवाह	-$3,62,30,00,000
वित्तपोषण नकदी प्रवाह	-$9,26,90,00,000

परिचालन खंड के अनुसार राजस्व2024-09-29 के कुल राजस्व में हिस्सेदारी।

परिचालन खंड के अनुसार राजस्वहिस्सेदारी

Qct$33.2 अ॰85.2%+9.3% वर्ष-दर-वर्ष

Qtl$5.6 अ॰14.3%+5% वर्ष-दर-वर्ष

Qsi$1.8 क॰0%−35.7% वर्ष-दर-वर्ष

स्रोत: SEC EDGAR · दाखिल 2025-11-05 · SEC EDGAR

राजस्व संरचना डेटा: परिचालन खंड के अनुसार राजस्व
परिचालन खंड के अनुसार राजस्व	राजस्व	हिस्सेदारी	वर्ष-दर-वर्ष
Qct	$33.2 अ॰	85.2%	9.3%
Qtl	$5.6 अ॰	14.3%	5%
Qsi	$1.8 क॰	0%	-35.7%

राजस्व और आयव्यवसाय का पैमाना रिपोर्ट किए गए लाभ में कैसे बदलता है।

नकद और ऋणकुल उधारी के मुकाबले उपलब्ध तरलता।

नकदी सृजनपरिचालन नकदी प्रवाह की मुक्त नकदी प्रवाह से तुलना।

लाभप्रदतासकल, परिचालन और शुद्ध मार्जिन की प्रगति।

2026-09-09 के विश्लेषण में उपयोग किया गया समय-बिंदु वित्तीय डेटा।

वित्तीय इतिहास डेटा
अवधि	राजस्व	EBITDA	शुद्ध आय	परिचालन नकद प्रवाह	मुक्त नकद प्रवाह	Capex	मूल्यह्रास और परिशोधन	शेयर-आधारित पारिश्रमिक	शेयर पुनर्खरीद	भुगतान किए गए लाभांश	शुद्ध ऋण निर्गम	निवेश नकदी प्रवाह	वित्तपोषण नकदी प्रवाह	आरंभिक नकदी	अंतिम नकदी	नकद और निवेश	कुल ऋण	परिचालन मार्जिन	ROIC	WACC	ROIC−WACC अंतर
2016-09-25	$23.6 अ॰	$8.2 अ॰	$5.7 अ॰	$7.6 अ॰	$7.1 अ॰	$53.9 क॰	$1.4 अ॰	$94.3 क॰	$3.9 अ॰	$3 अ॰	—	-$3.5 अ॰	-$5.8 अ॰	—	$5.9 अ॰	$18.6 अ॰	$10 अ॰	27.6%	—	7.1%	—
2017-09-24	$22.3 अ॰	$5 अ॰	$2.4 अ॰	$5 अ॰	$4.3 अ॰	$69 क॰	$1.5 अ॰	$91.4 क॰	$1.3 अ॰	$3.3 अ॰	—	$20.5 अ॰	$5.6 अ॰	$5.9 अ॰	$37 अ॰	$37.3 अ॰	$19.4 अ॰	11.6%	—	6.6%	—
2018-09-30	$22.6 अ॰	$5.3 अ॰	-$5 अ॰	$3.9 अ॰	$3.1 अ॰	$78.4 क॰	$1.6 अ॰	$88.3 क॰	$22.6 अ॰	$3.5 अ॰	—	$2.4 अ॰	-$31.5 अ॰	$37 अ॰	$11.8 अ॰	$12.1 अ॰	$15.4 अ॰	2.7%	—	8.5%	—
2019-09-29	$24.3 अ॰	$9.5 अ॰	$4.4 अ॰	$7.3 अ॰	$6.4 अ॰	$88.7 क॰	$1.4 अ॰	$1 अ॰	$1.8 अ॰	$3 अ॰	—	-$80.6 क॰	-$6.4 अ॰	$11.8 अ॰	$11.8 अ॰	$12.3 अ॰	$13.4 अ॰	31.6%	—	7.3%	—
2020-09-27	$23.5 अ॰	$7.6 अ॰	$5.2 अ॰	$5.8 अ॰	$4.4 अ॰	$1.4 अ॰	$1.4 अ॰	$1.2 अ॰	$2.5 अ॰	$2.9 अ॰	—	-$5.3 अ॰	-$5.7 अ॰	$11.8 अ॰	$6.7 अ॰	$11.2 अ॰	$15.2 अ॰	26.6%	—	5.5%	—
2021-09-26	$33.6 अ॰	$12.4 अ॰	$9 अ॰	$10.5 अ॰	$8.6 अ॰	$1.9 अ॰	$1.6 अ॰	$1.7 अ॰	$3.4 अ॰	$3 अ॰	—	-$3.4 अ॰	-$6.8 अ॰	$6.7 अ॰	$7.1 अ॰	$12.4 अ॰	$13.7 अ॰	29.2%	—	6.4%	—
2022-09-25	$44.2 अ॰	$17.3 अ॰	$12.9 अ॰	$9.1 अ॰	$6.8 अ॰	$2.3 अ॰	$1.8 अ॰	$2 अ॰	$3.1 अ॰	$3.2 अ॰	-$41.5 क॰	-$5.8 अ॰	-$7.2 अ॰	$7.1 अ॰	$3.1 अ॰	$6.4 अ॰	$13.5 अ॰	35.9%	—	8.6%	—
2023-09-24	$35.8 अ॰	$9.9 अ॰	$7.2 अ॰	$11.3 अ॰	$9.8 अ॰	$1.5 अ॰	$1.8 अ॰	$2.5 अ॰	$3 अ॰	$3.5 अ॰	-$6.4 क॰	$76.2 क॰	-$6.7 अ॰	$3.1 अ॰	$8.5 अ॰	$11.3 अ॰	$14.5 अ॰	21.7%	—	9.5%	—
2024-09-29	$39 अ॰	$12.7 अ॰	$10.1 अ॰	$12.2 अ॰	$11.2 अ॰	$1 अ॰	$1.7 अ॰	$2.6 अ॰	$4.1 अ॰	$3.7 अ॰	-$91.4 क॰	-$3.6 अ॰	-$9.3 अ॰	$8.5 अ॰	$7.8 अ॰	$13.3 अ॰	$13.3 अ॰	25.8%	—	9.0%	—
2025-09-28	$44.3 अ॰	$14.9 अ॰	$5.5 अ॰	$14 अ॰	$12.8 अ॰	$1.2 अ॰	$1.6 अ॰	$2.8 अ॰	$8.8 अ॰	$3.8 अ॰	$12.2 क॰	-$80 क॰	-$13.2 अ॰	$7.8 अ॰	$5.5 अ॰	$10.2 अ॰	$14.8 अ॰	27.9%	—	9.7%	—

§9 समकक्ष मूल्यांकन तुलना

QUALCOMM IncorporatedQCOM

मूल्य / उचित मूल्य

उचित मूल्य$120.42Report-date price$174.09

मूल्यांकन तिथि09 सित॰ 2026

प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़तNone

निवेश स्कोरकार्ड50 / 100

Analog Devices, Inc.ADI

मूल्य / उचित मूल्य

उचित मूल्य$196.19Report-date price$362.25

मूल्यांकन तिथि08 सित॰ 2026

प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़तNone

निवेश स्कोरकार्ड57 / 100

Texas Instruments IncorporatedTXN

मूल्य / उचित मूल्य

उचित मूल्य$109.62Report-date price$258.92

मूल्यांकन तिथि09 सित॰ 2026

प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़तNone

निवेश स्कोरकार्ड62 / 100

QUALCOMM IncorporatedQCOM

मूल्य / उचित मूल्य

उचित मूल्य$120.42Report-date price$174.09

मूल्यांकन तिथि09 सित॰ 2026

प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़तNone

निवेश स्कोरकार्ड50 / 100

सहकर्मी गुणक और लाभप्रदता
टिकर	नाम	मार्केट कैप	P/E	P/S	EV/EBITDA	ROE

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) trades at 16.7x forward earnings against a peer median of 19.2x. Its EV/EBITDA of 15.8x compares with a peer median of 26.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Analog Devices Inc., Texas Instruments Incorporated, Microchip Technology Incorporated and NXP Semiconductors N.V., as of 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-09.

§10 उद्योग और चक्रEN

चक्र चरण

Expansion

The semiconductor benchmark showed capital spending at 4.4% of revenue and 1.27 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01.

बुल चक्र

A stronger demand outcome is possible if FY2027 revenue reaches the upper part of its dated estimate range. Stable margins and durable cash are unverified conditions; FY2027 adjusted EPS, reported operating margin, and FY2027 full-year free cash flow are the checkpoints.

बेयर चक्र

Lower purchases by any disclosed large customer would directly reduce revenue from that customer. Three customers represented material shares of FY2025 revenue.

दीर्घकालिक रुझान
रुझान	प्रभाव	टिप्पणी
Industry reinvestment	neutral	The capital-intensity benchmark signals ongoing reinvestment, but it does not establish company-specific demand, supply, or lead-time conditions.

स्थिति

The selected annual forecasts place FY2027 revenue above FY2026, supporting a demand-led recovery expectation rather than a reported outcome. FY2025 revenue was concentrated among three disclosed customers.^1,6

§11 स्थिति प्रबंधनEN

साइज़िंग

No strategic allocation under the Sell rating.. Fair value is below the report-date price, while the recovery still requires earnings and cash confirmation.³

जोखिम

Use the operating triggers above rather than averaging down on price weakness.

प्रवेश ट्रांच
स्तर	क्रिया	क्यों
Only after a new assessment establishes price below Fair value and recovery thresholds are met.	Reassess, but do not initiate under the existing Sell rating.	Revenue alone is insufficient without stable margin, earnings, and free cash flow.

निकास ट्रांच
स्तर	क्रिया
Any remaining position near or above the $174.09 report-date price.	Sell or complete the reduction.

तिमाही चेकपॉइंट
मेट्रिक	सीमा	क्रिया
FY2027 revenue outlook	Below $41.66 billion.	Complete the exit and replace the recovery thesis with a flat-to-declining sales path.
Operating margin	Below 24% on a sustained basis.

Revenue	$42.95B	$44.81B	$46.60B	$48.28B	$49.87B	$51.42B	$52.91B	$54.39B	$55.81B	$57.20B
Operating income	$11.60B	$12.10B	$12.58B	$13.04B	$13.47B	$13.88B	$14.29B	$14.69B	$15.07B	$15.44B
NOPAT	$11.34B	$11.84B	$12.31B	$12.75B	$13.17B	$13.58B	$13.97B	$14.37B	$14.74B	$15.11B
Residual cash after reinvestment policy	$11.34B	$11.84B	$12.31B	$12.75B	$13.17B	$13.58B	$13.97B	$14.37B	$14.74B	$15.11B
Revenue growth	-3.0%	4.3%	4.0%	3.6%	3.3%	3.1%	2.9%	2.8%	2.6%	2.5%
Operating margin	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%
Tax rate	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
Reinvestment rate	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Terminal growth	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%

QCOM	QUALCOMM Incorporated	$185.9B	16.7x	4.2x	15.8x	33.8%	—
ADI	Analog Devices Inc.		22.2x	12.7x	26.4x	12.2%	39.5%
TXN	Texas Instruments Incorporated		24.3x	12.2x	25.6x	35.2%	42.6%
MCHP	Microchip Technology Incorporated		16.1x	7.8x	29.9x	7.2%	24.0%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors N.V.		12.4x	4.3x	12.7x	27.9%	30.4%

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QUALCOMM Incorporated

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