Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $104, high $217, with mid-point at $155.
Stock analysis

SNOW Snowflake Inc. fair value $155–$217

SNOW
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNYSE · Information Technology
View archive
मूल्य
$152.45
▲ +2.15 (+1.41%)
उचित मूल्य
$155
$155–$217
रेटिंग
होल्ड
confidence 76/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+1.4%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$131.41
buy below · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$52.7B
P/E fwd 62.7
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $155 with high case $217.
  • Implied upside of 1.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 76/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$155
Margin of safety
+1.4%
Confidence
76/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$152.45Price
FV $154.6
High $216.73

SNOW trades against a final fair-value range of $103.71-$216.73, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High data gravity from multi-cloud
    High data gravity from multi-cloud data warehousing
  • Switching costs associated with foundational
    Switching costs associated with foundational data architecture
  • Bull thesis
    Fundamental: Transformational technology weighed down by poor capital structure (SBC).

§2 बेयर केस

A prolonged macro downturn accelerates enterprise cloud optimization. Snowflake's consumption-based model experiences sharp revenue deceleration. Consequently, terminal growthTerminal growthThe perpetual growth rate assumed in the Gordon-growth terminal-value calculation. Capped below long-run nominal GDP (typically 2.5–3.0% for developed-market firms). drops to 2%, and operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. stalls at 15%.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Hyperscaler displacement

· High

AWS, GCP, and Azure bundle native data platforms at zero margin, stalling Snowflake's customer acquisition and forcing massive pricing concessions.

FV impact
$103.71
Trigger
12-24 months

SBC death spiral

· High

Stock-based compensation remains >30% of revenue, heavily diluting shareholders and preventing positive GAAP EPS indefinitely despite revenue scaling.

FV impact
<$100.00
Trigger
24-36 months

AI workload migration failure

· Medium

Customers migrate AI/ML workloads to specialized compute engines, relegating Snowflake to legacy storage and compressing terminal EV/Revenue multiples below 5x.

FV impact
$85.00
Trigger
36+ months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Net revenue retention falling below 110%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC expense exceeding 35% of total revenueMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential decline in remaining performance obligations (RPO)MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin failing to converge toward 20%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major customer defection to Databricks or hyperscalersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
राजस्व$2.07B$2.81B$3.63B$4.68B+31.4%
सकल लाभ$1.35B$1.91B$2.41B$3.15B+32.6%
परिचालन आय$-842.3M$-1.09B$-1.46B$-1.44B—
शुद्ध आय$-796.7M$-836.1M$-1.29B$-1.33B—
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$-2.50$-2.55$-3.86$-3.95—
EBITDA$-752.5M$-729.3M$-1.10B$-1.08B—
R&D$788.1M$1.29B$1.78B$1.97B+35.7%
SG&A$1.40B$1.71B$2.08B$2.61B+23.0%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
-0.92
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
-0.2%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

हर कवर किए गए टिकर के लिए पूर्ण रिपोर्ट
रेटिंग संग्रह के 24 महीने
वॉचलिस्ट ब्रीफ़िंग और रेटिंग-परिवर्तन अलर्ट
किसी भी भाषा में PDF + DOCX निर्यात
मुफ़्त ट्रायल शुरू करें
कभी भी रद्द करें।
FAQ

SNOW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SNOW trades close to fair value. The current price is $152 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $155 (range $104–$217), which implies roughly 1.4% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of SNOW also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit
Same sector: Information Technology