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TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $938, high $1542, with mid-point at $1239.
Stock analysis

TDG fair value $938–$1,542

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-13अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$1191.19
▲ +47.59 (+4.00%)
उचित मूल्य
$1239
$938–$1542
रेटिंग
होल्ड
confidence 86/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+4.0%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$1052.96
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$66.6B
P/E fwd 25.5
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $1,239 with high case $1,542.
  • Implied upside of 4.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 86/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$1,239
Margin of safety
+3.8%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$1,191.19Price
Low $938.35
Mid $1,238.78
High $1,542.2

TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered
    Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered sole-source components.
  • Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream
    Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream.
  • Cycle upside
    High airline fleet utilization drives relentless aftermarket parts demand, cementing pricing power.

§2 बेयर केस

A severe aviation downcycle matching 2020 shocks combined with sustained high interest rates would expose TDG's extreme financial leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA.. A 20% drop in aftermarket revenues paired with ballooning interest costs on $30B+ of debt would severely impair free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. conversion, pulling equity valuation below the $938 downside floor.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Regulatory Pricing Crackdown

15%· Low

DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.

FV impact
Severe multiple contraction dragging valuation down to the $938 downside scenario.
Trigger
1-3 Years

Aviation Downcycle Meets Debt

20%· Medium

Macroeconomic recession curtails air travel, slashing aftermarket demand while heavy debt servicing consumes all free cash flow.

FV impact
FCF squeeze pushes the Ke premium up, threatening a valuation drop below $938.
Trigger
1-2 Years

M&A Pipeline Exhaustion

15%· Low

Regulatory bodies block future acquisitions or targets disappear, breaking the inorganic growth engine that internal valuation cross-checks relies on.

FV impact
Long-term growth expectations fade, pulling the EV multiple down and reverting valuation toward trailing averages.
Trigger
3-5 Years
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Year-over-year operating margin compression exceeding 200 basis points.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Maintenance capex exceeding 3% of revenues structurally.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt servicing costs exceeding 40% of operating cash flow.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inability to successfully close and integrate accretive bolt-on acquisitions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margins falling below 55% due to airline pushback or supply chain inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
राजस्व$5.43B$6.59B$7.94B$8.83B+17.6%
सकल लाभ$3.10B$3.84B$4.67B$5.31B+19.7%
परिचालन आय$2.22B$2.92B$3.58B$4.19B+23.7%
शुद्ध आय$866.0M$1.30B$1.71B$2.07B+33.8%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$13.40$22.03$25.62$32.08+33.8%
EBITDA$2.46B$3.15B$3.81B$4.57B+23.0%
R&D—————
SG&A$748.0M$780.0M$934.0M$921.0M+7.2%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
0.98×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
16.3%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

TDG income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of TDG (TDG) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

TDG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, TDG trades close to fair value. The current price is $1191 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1239 (range $938–$1542), which implies roughly 4.0% upside to the midpoint.

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