TXN trades against a final fair-value range of $99.78-$206.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $99.8, high $207, with mid-point at $153.
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।
§1 कार्यकारी सारांश
Composite fair value $153 with high case $207.
Implied downside of 46.9% to fair value.
Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature dividend.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$153
Margin of safety
-88.4%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$287.80Price
Low $99.78
Mid $152.73
High $206.88
TXN trades against a final fair-value range of $99.78-$206.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Free cash flow for TXN (TXN) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
Operating cash flow is the primary signal: when OCF is negative or significantly below net income, the cash-flow subsection flags the divergence and traces the cause to working-capital, deferred-revenue, or earnings-quality effects.
Capital expenditure is reported as a percentage of revenue alongside the absolute number. Heavy investment phases are separated from harvesting phases so reinvestment intent is legible.
The financing activity row tracks dividends paid, share repurchases, and net debt issuance. Together with FCF, it answers whether buybacks and dividends are funded organically or by issuing debt.
FAQ
TXN — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, TXN looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $288 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $153 (range $99.8–$207), which implies roughly 46.9% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for TXN is $99.8–$207, with a midpoint of $153. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for TXN's archetype.
Our current rating for TXN is Sell with a confidence score of 87/100. TXN is rated Sell at $287.80 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $152.73, implying -46.93% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for TXN are: Fab execution failure; Structural demand destruction; Aggressive analog pricing war. The single biggest risk is Contrarian: While it is a high-quality mature dividend payer, the current price demands an impossible structural growth rate.
Our current rating for TXN is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 87/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($99.8–$207) versus the current price of $288.
TXN is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TXN.
