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WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $66.0, high $125, with mid-point at $95.3.
Stock analysis

WDAY WDAY fair value $66–$125

WDAY
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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मूल्य
$127.83
▼ -32.56 (-25.47%)
उचित मूल्य
$95
$66–$125
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 87/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-25.5%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$80.98
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$31.9B
P/E fwd 10.3
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $95 with high case $125.
  • Implied downside of 25.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$95
Margin of safety
-34.2%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$127.83Price
Low $65.95
Mid $95.27
High $124.7

WDAY trades against a final fair-value range of $65.95-$124.70, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Extremely high switching costs for
    Extremely high switching costs for enterprise ERP and HCM systems.
  • Deeply embedded core workflow integrations
    Deeply embedded core workflow integrations across corporate HR.
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-check ($179) is recklessly anchored to an unsustainable 19% implied growth rate.

§2 बेयर केस

Under severe macroeconomic contraction, enterprise IT budgets freeze. While Workday's subscription model cushions the immediate revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. blow, new logo acquisition stalls entirely. Margin expansion collapses as sales efficiency drops, keeping GAAP profitability heavily depressed by sticky SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

HCM Market Saturation

· High

Core HCM market saturates fully, permanently capping organic top-line growth at low single digits.

FV impact
-35% ($82/share)
Trigger
12-24 months

Financials Cross-sell Stagnation

· Medium

Failure to displace deeply entrenched Oracle and SAP cloud financials deployments stunts TAM expansion.

FV impact
-25% ($95/share)
Trigger
24-36 months

SBC Valuation Reckoning

· Medium

The market ceases to forgive non-cash SBC, forcing GAAP-based valuation multiples to violently compress.

FV impact
-48% ($65/share)
Trigger
12-18 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Subscription billings growth decelerating below 10%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation expense rising above 18% of total revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention rate dipping below 100%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting structurally below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Pace of share repurchases failing to offset SBC dilution.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
राजस्व$5.14B$6.22B$7.26B$8.45B$9.55B+16.8%
सकल लाभ$3.71B$4.51B$5.49B$6.38B$7.23B+18.1%
परिचालन आय$-116.0M$-182.0M$183.0M$499.0M$1.02B—
शुद्ध आय$29.0M$-367.0M$1.38B$526.0M$693.0M+121.1%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$0.12$-1.44$5.21$1.95$2.59+115.5%
EBITDA$377.0M$206.0M$752.0M$1.08B$1.47B+40.5%
R&D$1.88B$2.25B$2.46B$2.63B$2.68B+9.3%
SG&A$1.95B$2.44B$2.84B$3.25B$3.53B+16.0%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
8 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
2.69
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-2.78
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
4.24×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
7.6%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

WDAY — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDAY looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $128 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $95.3 (range $66.0–$125), which implies roughly 25.5% downside to the midpoint.

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