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WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $143, high $297, with mid-point at $206.
Stock analysis

WDC fair value $143–$297

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-09अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
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मूल्य
$480.00
▼ -274.13 (-57.11%)
उचित मूल्य
$206
$143–$297
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 57/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-57.1%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$174.99
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$165.4B
P/E fwd 27.6
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $206 with high case $297.
  • Implied downside of 57.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 3/10 · confidence 57/100 · Cyclical.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$206
Margin of safety
-133.2%
Confidence
57/100
Moat
3/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$480.00Price
Low $142.93
Mid $205.87
High $297.11

WDC trades against a final fair-value range of $142.93-$297.11, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale in HDD and NAND
    Scale in HDD and NAND flash manufacturing
  • Extensive intellectual property portfolio
    Extensive intellectual property portfolio
  • Cycle upside
    Current cycle peak driven by AI server storage demands and tight supply discipline across the memory oligopoly.

§2 बेयर केस

In a severe cycle downturn mirroring 2023, margins collapse, revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. shrinks double-digits, and free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. turns heavily negative due to rigid maintenance capexMaintenance capexCapex required to sustain current revenue and capacity. Approximately equal to depreciation in steady-state. Subtracted from earnings in the owner-earnings construct..

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Cyclical Bust and Oversupply

· High

A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.

FV impact
Down to $142.93 (-70%)
Trigger
12-24 Months

Technological Displacement

· Medium

Failure to remain competitive in next-generation high-capacity enterprise SSDs, losing share to Samsung or SK Hynix.

FV impact
Down to $180.00 (-62%)
Trigger
36+ Months

Balance Sheet Impairment

· Low

A deep cyclical trough strains liquidity before the flash spin-off is completed, triggering distressed capital raises.

FV impact
Down to $100.00 (-79%)
Trigger
18-36 Months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Rising days inventory outstandingMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in NAND average selling pricesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex pushouts or cancellationsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay or cancellation of the flash business spin-offMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Competitors aggressively adding fab capacityMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
राजस्व$18.79B$6.26B$6.32B$9.52B-20.3%
सकल लाभ$5.87B$1.39B$1.77B$3.69B-14.3%
परिचालन आय$2.43B$-402.0M$97.0M$2.13B-4.3%
शुद्ध आय$1.55B$-1.68B$-798.0M$1.86B+6.4%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$4.75$-5.44$-1.72$5.12+2.5%
EBITDA$3.40B$289.0M$243.0M$1.94B-17.1%
R&D$2.32B$986.0M$950.0M$994.0M-24.6%
SG&A$1.12B$807.0M$726.0M$568.0M-20.2%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
6 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
12.88
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
Beneish M-स्कोर
-2.36
आय में हेरफेर का जोखिम
OCF / शुद्ध आय
0.91×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
11.5%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

हर कवर किए गए टिकर के लिए पूर्ण रिपोर्ट
रेटिंग संग्रह के 24 महीने
वॉचलिस्ट ब्रीफ़िंग और रेटिंग-परिवर्तन अलर्ट
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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

WDC intrinsic value questions

  1. WDC (WDC)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

WDC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, WDC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $480 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $206 (range $143–$297), which implies roughly 57.1% downside to the midpoint.

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