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XEL trades against a final fair-value range of $63.71-$105.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $63.7, high $105, with mid-point at $85.0.
Stock analysis

XEL fair value $64–$105

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-20अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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मूल्य
$79.73
▲ +5.30 (+6.65%)
उचित मूल्य
$85
$64–$105
रेटिंग
होल्ड
confidence 82/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+6.7%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$72.28
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$49.8B
P/E fwd 17.6
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $85 with high case $105.
  • Implied upside of 6.7% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$85
Margin of safety
+6.2%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$79.73Price
Low $63.71
Mid $85.03
High $105.01

XEL trades against a final fair-value range of $63.71-$105.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Regulated Natural Monopoly
    Regulated Natural Monopoly
  • Efficient Scale in Transmission
    Efficient Scale in Transmission
  • Cycle upside
    Driven by accelerated federal support for renewable transition and higher-than-expected ROE recovery in key territories.

§2 बेयर केस

A $2 billion wildfire payout scenario would likely strain the current 66% payout ratioPayout ratioDividends per share divided by EPS. Measures how much of earnings the company distributes versus retains for reinvestment., potentially forcing a suspension of the 6-7% dividend growth target and triggering credit downgrades.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Colorado Wildfire Liability Failure

15%· Low

Legislative or judicial failure to protect cost recovery in Colorado wildfire cases leads to material cash outflows exceeding $2.5 billion.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Framework Breakdown

10%· Low

Public utility commissions in Minnesota or Colorado reject renewable infrastructure rate hikes, leading to ROE recovery below 9.0%.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-18 months

Interest Rate Compression

20%· Medium

A sustained 100+ bps increase in benchmark rates reduces the utility yield spread and triggers multi-year valuation multiple compression.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
Next 12 months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Wildfire liability estimates exceeding $2.5 billion in Colorado judicial proceedings.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory ROE falling below 9.0% in primary jurisdictions (CO, MN).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 75% due to earnings compression.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net debt-to-EBITDA rising above 6.5x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant commissioning delays for renewable infrastructure projects.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$13.43B$15.31B$14.21B$13.44B$14.67B+2.2%
सकल लाभ$5.26B$5.86B$5.98B$6.15B$6.92B+7.1%
परिचालन आय$2.20B$2.43B$2.59B$2.39B$2.88B+6.9%
शुद्ध आय$1.60B$1.74B$1.77B$1.94B$2.02B+6.0%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)—$3.17$3.21$3.44$3.42+1.9%
EBITDA$4.60B$5.08B$5.20B$5.59B$6.20B+7.7%
R&D——————
SG&A——————

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
2.02×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
4.2%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

XEL intrinsic value questions

  1. XEL (XEL)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

XEL — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, XEL looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $79.7 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $85.0 (range $63.7–$105), which implies roughly 6.7% upside to the midpoint.

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