Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

• Submarket lab oversupply forces prolonged lease vacancy downtime
• Mark-to-market rental roll-downs accelerate across upcoming expirations
• Asset disposition delays keep debt burdens and interest expense elevated

In the downside path, competitive laboratory space oversupply and constrained tenant capital expenditure force deeper rental concessions and extended vacancy downtime. Heavy fixed debt service obligations and delayed capital recycling would exacerbate negative operating leverage. This path would be confirmed by negative double-digit cash renewal spreads and elevated debt-to-operating earnings ratios.

Guidance projects 2026 cash rental rate changes on lease renewals between -7.0% and -15.0%, following a -15.8% drop in 1Q26. Contractual expirations across 2026 (451k RSF) and 2027 (1.38M RSF) face 12 to 24 months of downtime. Sustained cash renewal cuts below -15.0% trigger negative operating leverage and asset impairments.³

• Core mega-campus occupancy stabilizes as newly delivered space reaches occupancy
• Annual construction capital expenditures moderate in line with management guidance
• Asset sales and joint venture transactions close without significant pricing discounts

In the Base case, Alexandria achieves Fair value of $43.02 representing a return of 3.4% with a probability of 55.0%. This path requires steady lease absorption across the development pipeline, normalization of construction capital expenditures toward guided levels, and successful completion of planned capital recycling to stabilize leverage. The scenario would be disconfirmed if cash renewal spreads deteriorate deeper than expected or if tenant downtime extends across upcoming expirations.

• Accelerated biotechnology venture capital funding drives renewed wet-lab demand
• Cash renewal rental rate growth turns positive across primary innovation clusters
• Joint venture transactions close at premium pricing, enabling rapid debt reduction

In the Bull case, Alexandria reaches of $49.06 representing an attractive return of 17.9% with a probability of 20.0%. This outcome requires a strong rebound in biotechnology venture funding that accelerates life science leasing, returns cash renewal spreads to positive territory, and allows expedited debt repayment through premium asset valuations. The path would be disconfirmed if secondary submarket lab vacancy persists and renewal spreads remain constrained.