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CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics. Fair value range: low $140, high $274, with mid-point at $201.
Stock analysis

CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $201–$274

CRWD
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-10Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Pre-profitNASDAQ · Information Technology
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Prezzo
$527.77
▼ -327.06 (-61.97%)
Valore equo
$201
$201–$274
Valutazione
Vendere
confidence 82/100
Potenziale rialzo
-62.0%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$170.60
buy below · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$134.3B
P/E fwd 85.6
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Trading at ~85x forward PEG and ~27x EV/Rev, disconnected from fundamental realities.
  • Massive $1.09B SBC heavily suppresses true GAAP profitability and unit economics.
  • Target $200.71 assumes deceleration to ~12% growth and an 8x terminal multiple.
  • Reverse DCF shows consensus expectations are mathematically unsupportable.
Fair value
$201
Margin of safety
-163.0%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$527.77Price
FV $200.71
High $273.98

CrowdStrike is a premier endpoint security and cloud workload protection platform demonstrating rapid revenue scaling and immense operating cash flows. However, massive structural reliance on stock-based compensation currently depresses GAAP profitability and masks true unit economics.

  • Data network effects generated by
    Data network effects generated by the distributed Falcon platform.
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated enterprise cybersecurity stacks.
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated cyber threat landscape and strict regulatory mandates drive mandatory IT budget allocations toward premium vendors.

§2 Scenario ribassista

Intensifying competition compresses growth to mid-teens earlier than expected. Simultaneously, stubborn SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. continuously dilutes shareholders, preventing EPSEarnings per shareNet income divided by weighted-average diluted shares outstanding. The headline accounting earnings figure on a per-share basis. scaling and driving extreme multiple contraction.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Microsoft Price War

· High

Microsoft undercuts endpoint pricing, driving CRWD growth below 15% and destroying terminal margin targets.

FV impact
Severe

SBC Revolt

· Medium

Institutional investors refuse to tolerate >20% SBC/Revenue, forcing cash compensation and tanking operating cash flows.

FV impact
High

Platform Breach

· Low

A catastrophic Falcon update or architectural breach severely impairs brand trust and sinks net retention rates.

FV impact
Terminal
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
YoY revenue growth drops below 20% in the next two quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue remains anchored above 20%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression emerges from enterprise pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention consistently falls below the 120% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unfavorable shifts in the already distorted OCF-to-Net-Income ratio.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periodo2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Ricavi$1.45B$2.24B$3.06B$3.95B$4.81B+34.9%
Utile lordo$1.07B$1.64B$2.30B$2.96B$3.59B+35.4%
Reddito operativo$-142.5M$-190.1M$-19.1M$-116.4M$-293.3M
Utile netto$-234.8M$-183.2M$72.2M$-15.2M$-162.5M
EPS (diluito)$-1.03$-0.79$0.37$-0.08
EBITDA$-66.0M$-40.8M$276.7M$298.8M$182.5M
R&S$371.3M$608.4M$780.3M$1.08B$1.38B+39.0%
SG&A$839.6M$1.22B$1.54B$2.00B$2.50B+31.4%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
4 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
12.78
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
Beneish M-score
-2.95
Rischio di manipolazione degli utili
OCF / Utile netto
-9.92
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Fail
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
-0.0%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

CRWD — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $528 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $201 (range $140–$274), which implies roughly 62.0% downside to the midpoint.
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