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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
EFX — frequently asked questions
Is Equifax Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-10-11, EFX looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 146 USD versus our fair value of 161 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 200 USD. That implies roughly 10.3% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, gives EFX a fair value of 161 USD and a potential value of 200 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Equifax Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy EFX now?
Our latest published rating for EFX, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Hold. Equifax Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 146 USD versus fair value of 161 USD; potential value is 200 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for EFX?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-10-11 documents Equifax Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is EFX's rating?
Our latest published rating for EFX, analyzed 2026-10-11, is Hold, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 161 USD, the potential value of 200 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (146 USD).
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§1 SintesiEN
Risposta in 30 secondiHold
Prezzo rispetto al valore
Prezzo
$145.78
Fair value
$160.83
Valore potenziale
$199.54
Al
2026-10-09
Perché può funzionare
A faster-than-anticipated rebound in residential mortgage inquiries combined with accelerated adoption of The Work Number in government social services contracts could expand operating margins beyond 25% and drive FY2027 EPS above $11.00.
Cosa cambierebbe la nostra valutazione
Persistent mortgage origination contraction with inquiries dropping >15% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
Equifax Inc. (EFX) presents a balanced investment case at $145.78, where high-margin data assets and post-cloud margin leverage are balanced by mortgage cyclicality and financial leverage.4
Equifax possesses strong competitive advantages rooted in its proprietary employment database (The Work Number) and triopoly credit reporting infrastructure. In FY2025, consolidated revenue reached $6,074.5M with operating income of $1,095.2M, led by Workforce Solutions contributing $1,141.5M in segment operating profit. Completion of the firm's multi-year cloud overhaul is driving tangible operational leverage, demonstrated by 120 bps margin expansion in Q2 2026 and $150M in projected cumulative AI run-rate savings across 2026-2028.
However, these structural positives are balanced by near-term mortgage inquiry sensitivity and an elevated debt burden of $5,467.1M. At the October 9, 2026 price of $145.78, the stock trades at a 9.36% discount to our compositefair value of $160.83 (10.32% upside), which places the risk-reward profile firmly within the Hold rating band.4
Hold: Compositefair value of $160.83 represents 10.32% upside, offering balanced risk-reward.
Panoramica dell’azienda
Equifax Inc. is a global data, analytics, and technology company that provides consumer and commercial credit reporting, employment and income verification, and fraud prevention services. The company operates across three principal segments: Workforce Solutions, U.S. Information Solutions (USIS), and International.
In FY2025, Workforce Solutions generated $2,582.3M in revenue, USIS generated $2,078.5M, and International generated $1,413.7M, serving financial institutions, employers, healthcare organizations, and government agencies.
§2 Scenario ribassistaEN
A prolonged mortgage downturn coupled with debt refinancing at prevailing pre-tax borrowing costs of 6.22% on $5,467.1M of total debt would pressure annual interest expense and reduce cash conversion. If core revenue growth stalls below 6.11% CAGR and operating margins drop under 18.03%, annual free cash flow expansion would stall, compromising net debt reduction and multiple resilience.
Persistent high mortgage rates suppress consumer borrowing inquiries while emerging verification aggregators introduce fee friction. Operating margins fail to expand past 18.03%, slowing earnings expansion.
Come questa tesi può fallire
Persistent mortgage freeze and TWN pricing pushback compress operating margin
Operating income was $1,095.2M on $6,074.5M revenue in FY2025 (18.03% margin). A decline below 18.0% falsifies the thesis of 50-75 bps annual core operating leverage and AI cost savings.5,7
FV impact
-3.1%
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
Equifax maintains a Wide economic moat anchored by two distinct, highly defensible data franchises: The Work Number (Workforce Solutions) and its credit bureau infrastructure (US Information Solutions). The Work Number operates as a de facto regulatory-compliant clearinghouse for income and employment verifications, generating $2,582.3M in revenue and $1,141.5M in operating income in FY2025. Exclusive direct integrations with corporate payroll systems create dual-sided network effects and steep switching costs: employers benefit from outsourced verification management, while lenders, government agencies, and background screeners rely on instant, authoritative data that cannot be replicated by manual alternatives.
In consumer credit reporting, USIS generated $2,078.5M in revenue and $475.2M in operating income in FY2025, benefiting from statutory and regulatory frameworks (FCRA) and triopoly credit bureau status. With the completion of its enterprise cloud migration, Equifax has consolidated legacy systems into a modern cloud fabric, expanding operating margins by 120 bps in Q2 2026 and securing structural cost advantages over competitors. These advantages ensure ROIC comfortably exceeds the firm's 8.72% WACC.
Profitto economico
Equifax generates sustained economic profits supported by an 8.72% WACC and 18.03% GAAP operating margin ($1,095.2M EBIT on $6,074.5M revenue in FY2025), generating operating cash flow of $1,615.7M and FCF of $1,134.3M.2,6,7
9/ 10
Wide
Sources of advantage
01High Switching Costs & Direct Software Integration — Workforce Solutions embeds directly into corporate enterprise payroll systems with 10% record growth and 52.1% EBITDA margins, creating mission-critical automated workflows that verifiers cannot readily substitute.Wide
02Network Effects of Proprietary Employment Records — The Work Number database generated $2,582.3M revenue and $1,141.5M operating profit in FY2025, creating dual-sided network effects where deeper record coverage continuously attracts financial, government, and employer verifiers.Wide
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($160.83). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $799.8M after modeled reinvestment of $266.6M, with terminal value at 79.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Capital expenditures normalize toward steady-state run-rates following cloud migration
Total debt is steadily paid down using strong excess free cash flow generation
Core revenue expands at 11.11% in FY2026 and 8.76% in FY2027 in line with consensus. Cloud operating leverage delivers ~75 bps annual core margin expansion, driving EPS toward $10.15 in FY2027.1,5
Earnings quality is solid, driven by recurring subscription and transactional verification data with GAAP net income of $660.3M converting to $1,615.7M in operating cash flow in FY2025, supported by high EBITDA margins in Workforce Solutions.5,7
Andamento delle stime
Consensus FY2026 EPS of $8.56 and FY2027 EPS of $10.15 have held stable post-Q2 results, reflecting steady operational execution balanced against persistent mortgage market headwinds.1
Equifax generated $1,615.7M in operating cash flow and $1,134.3M in free cash flow in FY2025 against GAAP net income of $660.3M, reflecting cash conversion of over 2.4x net income. With CapEx stabilizing at $481.4M, free cash flow conversion provides robust support for dividend payments ($2.24/share baseline) and debt service.6,7
Allocazione del capitale
Capital deployment priorities center on debt reduction against $5,467.1M in total debt, disciplined bolt-on acquisitions in international and verification verticals, and opportunistic share repurchases, utilizing >$1B annual excess free cash flow.
Return on invested capital is inflecting upward as multi-year cloud migration capital outlays taper off ($481.4M CapEx in FY2025) while operating profits expand through AI productivity gains of $150M.
ROIC comfortably exceeds the computed WACC of 8.72% and cost of equity of 10.01%, confirming substantial economic value generation.
Ricavi più recenti6,1 Mld USDCAGR dei ricavi +7,6%
Margine operativo18,0%10 periodi fiscali
Flusso di cassa libero più recente1,1 Mld USDFY2025
Debito netto4,9 Mld USDFY2025
Dettaglio del conto economicoCome la scala aziendale si traduce in utile dichiarato.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ricavi6,1 Mld USDCosto del venduto−2,6 Mld USDUtile lordo3,4 Mld USDCosti operativi−2,3 Mld USDReddito operativo1,1 Mld USDVoci non operative e imposte−434,9 Mln USDUtile netto660,3 Mln USD
Dati della storia finanziaria
Ricavi
6.074.500.000 USD
Costo del venduto
2.645.600.000 USD
Utile lordo
3.428.900.000 USD
Costi operativi
2.333.700.000 USD
Reddito operativo
1.095.200.000 USD
Voci non operative e imposte
-434.900.000 USD
Utile netto
660.300.000 USD
Panoramica dello stato patrimonialeCome sono detenute e finanziate le attività dichiarate nel periodo selezionato.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Composizione delle attivitàFinanziato da
Attività totali11,9 Mld USDDisponibilità liquide180,8 Mln USDAttività correnti1,4 Mld USDPassività totali7,1 Mld USDPassività correnti2,3 Mld USDPatrimonio netto4,6 Mld USD
Dati di dettaglio dello stato patrimoniale
Attività totali
11.864.200.000 USD
Disponibilità liquide
180.800.000 USD
Attività correnti
1.412.200.000 USD
Passività totali
7.126.000.000 USD
Passività correnti
2.335.400.000 USD
Patrimonio netto
4.623.800.000 USD
Ponte dei flussi di cassaCome il flusso di cassa operativo è diventato flusso di cassa libero nel FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Riconciliazione del flusso operativo
Utile netto660,3 Mln USDAmmortamenti e svalutazioni+726,9 Mln USDCompensi basati su azioni+78,4 Mln USDAltre rettifiche operative+150,1 Mln USDFlusso di cassa operativo1,6 Mld USD
Riconciliazione della liquidità iniziale e finale
Liquidità iniziale169,9 Mln USDFlusso di cassa operativo+1,6 Mld USDFlusso da investimenti−554,3 Mln USDFlusso da finanziamenti−1,1 Mld USDEffetto dei tassi di cambio+9,2 Mln USDLiquidità finale180,8 Mln USD
1,6 Mld USD − 481,4 Mln USDFlusso di cassa libero 1,1 Mld USD
Dati del ponte dei flussi di cassa
Utile netto
660.300.000 USD
Afflusso operativo
1.615.700.000 USD
Ammortamenti e svalutazioni
726.900.000 USD
Compensi basati su azioni
78.400.000 USD
Altre rettifiche operative
150.100.000 USD
Flusso di cassa operativo
1.615.700.000 USD
Liquidità disponibile
1.794.800.000 USD
Liquidità iniziale
169.900.000 USD
Effetto dei tassi di cambio
9.200.000 USD
Deflusso da investimenti
554.300.000 USD
Capex
481.400.000 USD
Altre attività di investimento
72.900.000 USD
Deflusso da finanziamenti
1.059.700.000 USD
Liquidità finale
180.800.000 USD
Flusso da investimenti
-554.300.000 USD
Flusso da finanziamenti
-1.059.700.000 USD
Ricavi per segmento operativoQuota dei ricavi totali per 2025-12-31.
6,1 Mld USDRicavi totali
Ricavi per segmento operativoQuota
Workforce Solutions2,6 Mld USD42,5%+6,1% a/a
USInformation Solutions2,1 Mld USD34,2%+9,8% a/a
International1,4 Mld USD23,3%+4,4% a/a
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Dati sulla composizione dei ricavi: Ricavi per segmento operativo
Ricavi per segmento operativo
Ricavi
Quota
a/a
Workforce Solutions
2,6 Mld USD
42,5%
6,1%
USInformation Solutions
2,1 Mld USD
34,2%
9,8%
International
1,4 Mld USD
23,3%
4,4%
Ricavi per area geograficaQuota dei ricavi totali per 2025-12-31.
6,1 Mld USDRicavi totali
Ricavi per area geograficaQuota
United States4,7 Mld USD76,7%+7,7% a/a
Altro498,3 Mln USD8,2%+4,4% a/a
United Kingdom325,9 Mln USD5,4%+7,6% a/a
Australia318,1 Mln USD5,2%+2,9% a/a
Canada271,4 Mln USD4,5%+2,5% a/a
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-19 · SEC EDGAR
Dati sulla composizione dei ricavi: Ricavi per area geografica
Ricavi per area geografica
Ricavi
Quota
a/a
United States
4,7 Mld USD
76,7%
7,7%
Other
498,3 Mln USD
8,2%
4,4%
United Kingdom
325,9 Mln USD
5,4%
7,6%
Australia
318,1 Mln USD
5,2%
2,9%
Canada
271,4 Mln USD
4,5%
2,5%
Ricavi e utiliCome la scala aziendale si traduce in utile dichiarato.
Liquidità e debitoLiquidità disponibile rispetto all’indebitamento totale.
Generazione di cassaFlusso di cassa operativo rispetto al flusso di cassa libero.
RedditivitàEvoluzione dei margini lordo, operativo e netto.
Dati finanziari puntuali utilizzati nell’analisi del 2026-10-11.
Equifax Inc. (EFX) trades at 16.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 20.5x. Its EV/EBITDA of 11.7x compares with a peer median of 18.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Verisk Analytics Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., Generac Holdings Inc. and Hubbell Incorporated, as of 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-11.
§10 Settore e cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Trough
Industry capex-to-revenue stands at 3.4% and capex-to-depreciation at 0.65, while Equifax capex moderated to $481.4M (7.9% of revenue) following completion of its enterprise cloud overhaul.7
Ciclo rialzista
A falling interest rate environment sparks mortgage refinancing and purchase activity, accelerating verification inquiries across USIS and Workforce Solutions while commercial non-mortgage demand expands at high single digits.
Ciclo ribassista
Persistent elevated interest rates depress lending inquiries, while regulatory pressure or consumer-permissioned verification bypasses create top-line headwinds across core credit and verification lines.
Trend secolari
Trend
Impatto
Nota
Digital automated verification of income and employment
positive
Shift from manual pay-stub verification to automated instant API verification via The Work Number expanding in government benefits and talent acquisition.
Cloud and generative AI infrastructure integration
positive
Enterprise cloud migration enables deployment of AI tools yielding $150M in expected run-rate cost savings across 2026-2028.
Higher interest rate sensitivity in residential lending
Equifax is positioned as an indispensable verification infrastructure provider with strong pricing power in Workforce Solutions ($2,582.3M FY2025 revenue) and credit bureau triopoly standing in USIS ($2,078.5M FY2025 revenue).8
§11 Gestione della posizioneEN
Dimensionamento
2-3%
Reflects the company's wide moat and post-cloud free cash flow inflections balanced against $5.47B in total debt and cyclical mortgage sensitivity.4
Rischio
Manage balance sheet exposure given $5,467.1M in total debt by tracking debt-to-EBITDA progress and interest expense trends under pre-tax debt costs of 6.22%.
Equifax offers high-quality defensive data assets and high cash conversion, but the modest 10.32% upside to fair value ($160.83) does not warrant an aggressive overweight.6
Long-term Compounder
Hold
The Work Number data monopoly and cloud-enabled operating leverage underpin steady multi-year compounding toward $10.15 EPS in FY2027, supporting continued retention of core positions.1
Tactical
Hold
Near-term mortgage inquiry sensitivity and $5.47B debt load argue against adding capital ahead of clear lending inflection signals.4
§14 Raccomandazione finaleEN
Azione
Mantenere
We maintain a Hold rating on Equifax Inc. with a compositefair value of $160.83 per share, representing 10.32% upside from the October 9, 2026 price of $145.78.4
While completed cloud migration and Workforce Solutions record expansion provide structural margin expansion and robust cash conversion, the current valuation adequately reflects near-term operational momentum amidst cyclical mortgage headwinds and financial leverage.
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Severe macroeconomic downturn and lending freeze shocks 5-year revenue trajectory
Consensus projects revenue growth of 11.11% in FY2026 ($6,749.4M) and 8.76% in FY2027 ($7,340.7M). Deceleration to 6.11% CAGR triggers severe top-line contraction across USIS and Workforce Solutions.1
FV impact
-6.9%
Revenue and EPS growth 5 points lower for five years
Trigger
Within 24 months
Valuation derating as market rejects premium compounder multiple amidst high leverage
Current forward P/E is 16.05x and model terminal multiple is 18.0x. A 20% contraction to 14.4x aligns with peer and historical cyclical trough multiples under $5.47B total debt.4
— USIS generated $2,078.5M revenue and $475.2M operating income in FY2025, protected by FCRA compliance protocols, historical credit trade-line archives, and nationwide institutional relationships that establish high entry barriers.
Wide
Mortgage origination volatility and FICO scoring fee disputes
medium
1-2 years
Expanding non-mortgage verification across talent and government ($100M new awards) and promoting adoption of alternative scoring models.5
Discounted forecast-period cash flows (33,88 USD) plus discounted terminal value (130 USD) minus signed per current share (41,99 USD) equals the 122 USD lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Mortgage origination rates rebound sharply while non-mortgage verification accelerates via $100M+ in new government awards. AI run-rate savings surpass $150M, expanding operating margins past 24.8% by 2030.5
Target doubled to $150M across 2026-2028.
Perché è importante
Measures execution on multi-year cost reduction commitments, confirming operating leverage and margin expansion from completed cloud transformation.
03
Metrica:
Deleveraging and Debt Servicing Pace
AttualeTotal debt stands at $5,467.1M as of Q2 2026.
Perché è importante
Substantial balance sheet leverage requires disciplined debt paydown to lower interest burdens and protect equity value.
