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EMR trades against a final fair-value range of $88.69-$155.92, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $88.7, high $156, with mid-point at $122.
Stock analysis

EMR fair value $89–$156

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-13Aggiornato: Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Prezzo
$137.28
▼ -15.07 (-10.98%)
Valore equo
$122
$89–$156
Valutazione
Ridurre
confidence 87/100
Potenziale rialzo
-11.0%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$103.88
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$76.9B
P/E fwd 19.2

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $122 with high case $156.
  • Implied downside of 11.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$122
Margin of safety
-12.3%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$137.28Price
Low $88.69
Mid $122.21
High $155.92

EMR trades against a final fair-value range of $88.69-$155.92, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs associated with
    High switching costs associated with mission-critical process automation platforms like DeltaV.
  • Sticky, high-margin software and service
    Sticky, high-margin software and service recurring revenue base.
  • Bull thesis
    Reduce-side internal valuation cross-checks ($164.87) aggressively prices in perfect execution of the M&A synergy playbook and permanent retention of 24.2% outlier margins.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A synchronized global industrial recession combined with delays in clean energy CAPEXCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). stalls near-term automation spending. The newly acquired software segments fail to offset hardware cyclicality, causing margins to revert to the 16% historical peer average.

Come questa tesi può fallire

M&A Value Destruction

20%· Medium

Failure to extract synergies from recent software acquisitions causes ROIC to stagnate below WACC, driven by the $18B goodwill burden.

FV impact
$88.69 (Implies ~35% downside)

Automation CAPEX Freeze

25%· Medium

Macroeconomic weakness and deferred conventional energy projects significantly halt process automation spending across key markets.

FV impact
Significant multiple compression to 15x legacy industrial norms.

Margin Reversion

30%· Medium

Current 24.2% operating margins prove unsustainable and revert to the 16% historical industry norm amidst competitive pricing pressures.

FV impact
Downside to the Multi-Stage Moat Fade midpoint of $77.53.
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Consecutive quarters of declining software and services recurring revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins compressing below the 21% normalized assumption.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unadjusted ROIC falling further below current 6.9% due to asset bloat.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant downward revisions in forward private EPS estimate reference.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Management pausing or cutting the dividend/buyback program to preserve cash.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periodo2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Ricavi$13.80B$15.17B$17.49B$18.02B+9.3%
Utile lordo$6.31B$7.43B$8.89B$9.52B+14.7%
Reddito operativo$2.36B$2.76B$2.67B$3.53B+14.4%
Utile netto$3.23B$13.22B$1.97B$2.29B-10.8%
EPS (diluito)$5.41$22.88$3.43$4.04-9.3%
EBITDA$3.50B$4.22B$4.03B$4.84B+11.4%
R&S—————
SG&A$3.61B$4.19B$5.14B$5.10B+12.2%

Punteggi di qualità

OCF / Utile netto
1.35×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Fail
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
7.7%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Flusso di cassa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

EMR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, EMR screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $137 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $122 (range $88.7–$156), which implies roughly 11.0% downside to the midpoint.

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