Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
HCA trades against a final fair-value range of $496.77-$798.49, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $497, high $798, with mid-point at $647.
Stock analysis

HCA HCA fair value $497–$798

HCA
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-13Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Prezzo
$426.37
▲ +220.89 (+51.81%)
Valore equo
$647
$497–$798
Valutazione
Acquisto forte
confidence 88/100
Potenziale rialzo
+51.8%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$550.17
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$94.6B
P/E fwd 12.9
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $647 with high case $798.
  • Implied upside of 51.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$647
Margin of safety
+34.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$426.37Price
Low $496.77
Mid $647.26
High $798.49

HCA trades against a final fair-value range of $496.77-$798.49, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Local market density and scale
    Local market density and scale advantages driving industry-leading margins.
  • Demographic tailwinds with an aging
    Demographic tailwinds with an aging population ensuring consistent volume.
  • Bull thesis
    Market under-appreciates the durability of HCA's local market density and the resultant ROIC/WACC spread.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A prolonged period of elevated interest rates combined with flat commercial volumes and margin compression to 13% would severely stress HCA's free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics., threatening the heavily leveraged capital structure and ending the share repurchase algorithm.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Severe Reimbursement Cuts

· Medium

Government payers drastically compress Medicare/Medicaid rates to manage ballooning deficits, crushing margins.

FV impact
Downside anchoring near Expected Value of $421
Trigger
12 to 24 months

Structural Labor Shortage

· High

Persistent clinical staff shortages force a permanent reliance on expensive contract labor, eroding operating margins below 14%.

FV impact
Valuation anchors to Forward Earnings mid $420
Trigger
6 to 18 months

Debt Cost Spiral

· Low

Refinancing the massive $48.7B net debt load at significantly higher rates extinguishes the aggressive buyback program.

FV impact
Severe reduction in Owner Earnings fair value and DCF upside
Trigger
24 to 36 months
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Operating margin falling below 14.0% in consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Year-over-year reduction in diluted shares outstanding falling below 3%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained acceleration in contract labor costs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative shift in payer mix toward government and uninsured.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deterioration of free cash flow conversion below $7B annually.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periodo2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ricavi—$60.23B$64.97B$70.60B$75.60B+5.8%
Utile lordo—$23.18B$25.58B$28.68B$31.37B+7.9%
Reddito operativo—$9.05B$9.63B$10.55B$11.97B+7.2%
Utile netto—$5.64B$5.24B$5.76B$6.78B+4.7%
EPS (diluito)—$19.15$18.97$22.00$28.33+10.3%
EBITDA—$13.29B$12.72B$13.90B$15.60B+4.1%
R&S——————
SG&A$26.78B$27.69B$29.49B$31.17B—+3.9%

Punteggi di qualità

OCF / Utile netto
1.86×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Fail
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
22.4%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Flusso di cassa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Report completo per ogni ticker coperto
24 mesi di archivio rating
Briefing della watchlist + avvisi di variazione del rating
Esportazione PDF + DOCX in qualsiasi lingua
Inizia la prova gratuita
Annulla in qualsiasi momento.
FAQ

HCA — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, HCA looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $426 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $647 (range $497–$798), which implies roughly 51.8% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of HCA also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder