HD trades against a final fair-value range of $192.08-$319.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $192, high $319, with mid-point at $255.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$255
Margin of safety
-26.3%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$322.64Price
Low $192.08
Mid $255.36
High $319.01
HD trades against a final fair-value range of $192.08-$319.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Scale advantages in procurement and
Scale advantages in procurement and distribution
Deep penetration and loyalty with
Deep penetration and loyalty with Pro customers
Bull thesis
Intrinsic cash flow models strictly signal downside expectation risk.
Our financial-history view of HD (HD) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.
The revenue trajectory is reported in the financial-history section with year-over-year growth rates. Direction and acceleration are summarised inline; the full table sits within the parent financials tab.
We track operating income alongside operating margin so the reader can separate top-line growth from operating leverage. The numbers analysis subsection flags one-offs, restructuring, and stock-based-compensation effects when material.
Net income is shown together with EPS so dilution and buybacks are visible alongside profit. Where reported net income diverges materially from operating cash flow, the discrepancy is called out in the numbers-analysis subsection.
FAQ
HD — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, HD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $323 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $255 (range $192–$319), which implies roughly 20.9% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for HD is $192–$319, with a midpoint of $255. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for HD's archetype.
Our current rating for HD is Reduce with a confidence score of 88/100. HD is rated Reduce at $322.64 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $255.36, implying -20.85% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for HD are: Mortgage Lock-in Stagnation; Consumer Credit Cycle Deterioration; Pro Customer Bankruptcies. The single biggest risk is The fundamental mature dividend payer profile does not mathematically support a $322 current price.
Our current rating for HD is Reduce, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($192–$319) versus the current price of $323.
HD is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for HD.
